quant-trader-service/training/trader_training/state_continue_experiment.py

from __future__ import annotations

import json
import logging
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from sklearn.linear_model import HuberRegressor, LogisticRegression, Ridge
from sklearn.metrics import brier_score_loss, mean_absolute_error, roc_auc_score
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler

from trader_training.io_utils import read_json, read_parquet, run_root, sha256_json, write_json, write_parquet, write_text
from trader_training.labels import DEFAULT_LABEL_CONFIG, _build_path_stats
from trader_training.schemas import FEATURE_ORDER, FIT_SPLIT, LATEST_STRESS_SPLIT, TUNE_SPLIT, VALIDATION_LOCKED_SPLIT


STATE_FEATURES = [
    "position_side_sign",
    "time_in_position_minutes",
    "unrealized_pnl_bps",
    "mfe_since_entry_bps",
    "mae_since_entry_bps",
    "distance_to_stop_bps",
    "distance_to_target_bps",
    "entry_predicted_edge_bps",
    "entry_direction_prob",
    "add_count",
    "minutes_since_last_add",
]

EVAL_SPLITS = (TUNE_SPLIT, VALIDATION_LOCKED_SPLIT, LATEST_STRESS_SPLIT)
ALL_SPLITS = (FIT_SPLIT, TUNE_SPLIT, VALIDATION_LOCKED_SPLIT, LATEST_STRESS_SPLIT)


def run_state_continue_experiment(args: Any) -> None:
    root = run_root(args)
    baseline_root = args.data_root / "trader-v4" / "runs" / args.baseline_run_id
    out_dir = root / "experiments" / "state_continue"
    ages = _parse_ages(args.ages_minutes)
    regressor_kind = getattr(args, "regressor_kind", "huber")
    ridge_alpha = float(getattr(args, "ridge_alpha", 10.0))
    huber_max_iter = int(getattr(args, "huber_max_iter", 1000))
    regression_target_clip_bps = float(getattr(args, "regression_target_clip_bps", 0.0))
    logging.info(
        "trader.training.state_continue_experiment_started runId=%s baselineRunId=%s ages=%s regressorKind=%s ridgeAlpha=%s huberMaxIter=%s regressionTargetClipBps=%s",
        args.run_id,
        args.baseline_run_id,
        ages,
        regressor_kind,
        ridge_alpha,
        huber_max_iter,
        regression_target_clip_bps,
    )

    feature = _load_feature_frame(baseline_root)
    entry = _load_entry_labels(baseline_root, feature)
    replay = _load_replay(baseline_root)
    plan = read_json(baseline_root / "label" / "price_plan_context.json")
    stop_bps = float(plan["stopDistanceBps"])
    target_bps = float(plan["targetDistanceBps"])
    cost_bps = float(plan["costBps"])
    continue_horizon = int(DEFAULT_LABEL_CONFIG["continue"]["horizon_minutes"])
    min_continue_edge_bps = float(DEFAULT_LABEL_CONFIG["continue"]["min_expected_continue_edge_bps"])

    state_frame = _build_state_frame(feature, entry, replay, ages, stop_bps, target_bps, cost_bps, continue_horizon, min_continue_edge_bps)
    if args.max_rows_per_split:
        state_frame = _cap_rows_per_split(state_frame, int(args.max_rows_per_split))
    dataset_hash = write_parquet(out_dir / "state_continue_train.parquet", state_frame)
    logging.info(
        "trader.training.state_continue_dataset_written runId=%s rowCount=%s splitCounts=%s path=%s",
        args.run_id,
        len(state_frame),
        state_frame["split_id"].value_counts().to_dict(),
        out_dir / "state_continue_train.parquet",
    )

    source_manifest = _source_manifest(
        args,
        baseline_root,
        ages,
        stop_bps,
        target_bps,
        cost_bps,
        continue_horizon,
        min_continue_edge_bps,
        state_frame,
        dataset_hash,
        regressor_kind,
        ridge_alpha,
        huber_max_iter,
        regression_target_clip_bps,
    )
    write_json(out_dir / "experiment_manifest.json", source_manifest)
    write_json(out_dir / "position_state_feature_schema.json", _state_feature_schema())
    order_hash = write_json(out_dir / "position_state_feature_order.json", STATE_FEATURES)
    write_json(
        out_dir / "position_state_source_manifest.json",
        {
            "entry_predicted_edge_bps": "run-10 frozen ENTRY ONNX output selected by entry side",
            "entry_direction_prob": "run-10 frozen DIRECTION ONNX output selected by entry side",
            "out_of_fold_used": False,
            "frozen_model_output_used": True,
            "frozen_model_output_policy": "baseline model is fixed and is not retrained inside this experiment",
            "replay_decision_trace_used": False,
            "state_feature_order_hash": order_hash,
            "row_count": len(state_frame),
            "split_counts": state_frame["split_id"].value_counts().to_dict(),
        },
    )

    feature_sets = {
        "market_only": FEATURE_ORDER,
        "market_plus_state": [*FEATURE_ORDER, *STATE_FEATURES],
    }
    results: dict[str, Any] = {}
    prediction_frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = []
    for side in ("LONG", "SHORT"):
        side_frame = state_frame[state_frame["position_side"].eq(side)].copy()
        for feature_set_name, feature_columns in feature_sets.items():
            key = f"{side.lower()}_{feature_set_name}"
            result, predictions = _train_side_models(side_frame, side, feature_columns, regressor_kind, ridge_alpha, huber_max_iter, regression_target_clip_bps)
            results[key] = result
            predictions["side"] = side
            predictions["feature_set"] = feature_set_name
            prediction_frames.append(predictions)
            logging.info(
                "trader.training.state_continue_model_trained runId=%s side=%s featureSet=%s tuneAuc=%s tuneMaeRatio=%s",
                args.run_id,
                side,
                feature_set_name,
                result.get(TUNE_SPLIT, {}).get("continue_auc"),
                result.get(TUNE_SPLIT, {}).get("edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio"),
            )

    predictions = pd.concat(prediction_frames, ignore_index=True) if prediction_frames else pd.DataFrame()
    verdict = _verdict(results)
    write_parquet(out_dir / "state_continue_predictions.parquet", predictions)
    write_json(out_dir / "state_continue_result.json", results)
    write_json(out_dir / "state_continue_verdict.json", verdict)
    write_text(out_dir / "state_continue_experiment_report.md", _report(args, baseline_root, source_manifest, results, verdict))
    logging.info("trader.training.state_continue_experiment_finished runId=%s report=%s", args.run_id, out_dir / "state_continue_experiment_report.md")


def _parse_ages(raw: str) -> list[int]:
    ages = [int(item.strip()) for item in raw.split(",") if item.strip()]
    if not ages or any(age <= 0 for age in ages):
        raise ValueError(f"invalid ages-minutes: {raw}")
    return sorted(set(ages))


def _load_feature_frame(baseline_root: Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
    feature = read_parquet(baseline_root / "feature" / "feature_frame.parquet")
    required = {"sample_id", "symbol", "event_time", "open_time_ms", "split_id", "walk_forward_fold", "data_quality_flag", *FEATURE_ORDER}
    missing = sorted(required.difference(feature.columns))
    if missing:
        raise ValueError(f"baseline feature frame missing columns: {missing}")
    feature = feature[feature["data_quality_flag"].isin(["OK", "PARTIAL_OPTIONAL"])].copy()
    feature = feature[feature["split_id"].isin(ALL_SPLITS)].copy()
    return feature


def _load_entry_labels(baseline_root: Path, feature: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
    entry = read_parquet(baseline_root / "label" / "entry_labels.parquet")
    required = {"sample_id", "symbol", "event_time", "side", "entry_target", "split_id", "walk_forward_fold"}
    missing = sorted(required.difference(entry.columns))
    if missing:
        raise ValueError(f"baseline entry labels missing columns: {missing}")
    entry = entry[(entry["entry_target"] == 1) & (entry["side"].isin(["LONG", "SHORT"]))].copy()
    entry["entry_open_time_ms"] = pd.to_datetime(entry["event_time"], utc=True).astype("int64") // 1_000_000
    entry_scores = _frozen_entry_scores_by_sample(baseline_root, feature)
    entry = entry.merge(entry_scores, on="sample_id", how="inner")
    if entry.empty:
        raise ValueError("state continue entry set is empty after merging frozen baseline model outputs")
    long_mask = entry["side"].eq("LONG")
    entry["entry_predicted_edge_bps"] = np.where(
        long_mask,
        entry["frozen_long_expected_net_edge_bps"],
        entry["frozen_short_expected_net_edge_bps"],
    )
    entry["entry_direction_prob"] = np.where(long_mask, entry["frozen_long_prob"], entry["frozen_short_prob"])
    return entry[["sample_id", "symbol", "event_time", "side", "entry_open_time_ms", "entry_predicted_edge_bps", "entry_direction_prob"]].copy()


def _frozen_entry_scores_by_sample(baseline_root: Path, feature: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
    source = feature[["sample_id", *FEATURE_ORDER]].drop_duplicates("sample_id").copy()
    direction = _predict_frozen_linear_model(
        baseline_root / "model" / "direction" / "direction.onnx",
        source,
        {
            "direction": ("softmax", ("frozen_long_prob", "frozen_short_prob", "frozen_neutral_prob")),
        },
    )
    entry = _predict_frozen_linear_model(
        baseline_root / "model" / "entry" / "entry.onnx",
        source,
        {
            "long_entry_prob": ("sigmoid", ("frozen_long_entry_prob",)),
            "short_entry_prob": ("sigmoid", ("frozen_short_entry_prob",)),
            "long_expected_net_edge_bps": ("identity", ("frozen_long_expected_net_edge_bps",)),
            "short_expected_net_edge_bps": ("identity", ("frozen_short_expected_net_edge_bps",)),
        },
    )
    return direction.merge(entry, on="sample_id", how="inner")


def _predict_frozen_linear_model(model_path: Path, frame: pd.DataFrame, heads: dict[str, tuple[str, tuple[str, ...]]]) -> pd.DataFrame:
    try:
        import onnx
        from onnx import numpy_helper
    except ModuleNotFoundError as exc:
        raise SystemExit("Python package 'onnx' is required to read frozen baseline ONNX weights.") from exc
    if not model_path.is_file():
        raise FileNotFoundError(f"frozen model is missing: {model_path}")
    model = onnx.load(model_path)
    initializers = {item.name: numpy_helper.to_array(item) for item in model.graph.initializer}
    x = frame[FEATURE_ORDER].apply(pd.to_numeric, errors="coerce").replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).fillna(0.0).astype("float32").to_numpy()
    out = pd.DataFrame({"sample_id": frame["sample_id"].to_numpy()})
    for head_name, (kind, output_columns) in heads.items():
        weight_name = f"{head_name}_W"
        bias_name = f"{head_name}_B"
        if weight_name not in initializers or bias_name not in initializers:
            raise ValueError(f"frozen model {model_path} is missing head initializers: {head_name}")
        values = x @ np.asarray(initializers[weight_name], dtype=np.float32) + np.asarray(initializers[bias_name], dtype=np.float32).reshape(1, -1)
        if kind == "softmax":
            values = _softmax(values)
        elif kind == "sigmoid":
            values = _sigmoid(values)
        elif kind != "identity":
            raise ValueError(f"unsupported frozen head kind: {kind}")
        if values.shape[1] != len(output_columns):
            raise ValueError(f"head {head_name} output width mismatch: {values.shape[1]} != {len(output_columns)}")
        for index, column in enumerate(output_columns):
            out[column] = values[:, index].astype("float32")
    return out


def _softmax(values: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
    shifted = values - np.max(values, axis=1, keepdims=True)
    exp = np.exp(shifted)
    return exp / exp.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)


def _sigmoid(values: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
    clipped = np.clip(values, -50.0, 50.0)
    return 1.0 / (1.0 + np.exp(-clipped))


def _load_replay(baseline_root: Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
    split_manifest = read_json(baseline_root / "split" / "split_manifest.json")
    replay_path = Path(split_manifest["source_replay_path"])
    replay = read_parquet(replay_path)
    required = {"symbol", "event_time", "open_time_ms", "high", "low", "close", "spread_bps"}
    missing = sorted(required.difference(replay.columns))
    if missing:
        raise ValueError(f"source replay missing columns: {missing}")
    return replay.sort_values(["symbol", "open_time_ms"]).reset_index(drop=True)


def _build_state_frame(
    feature: pd.DataFrame,
    entry: pd.DataFrame,
    replay: pd.DataFrame,
    ages: list[int],
    stop_bps: float,
    target_bps: float,
    cost_bps: float,
    continue_horizon: int,
    min_continue_edge_bps: float,
) -> pd.DataFrame:
    future_stats = _build_path_stats(replay, horizon=continue_horizon, target_bps=target_bps, stop_bps=stop_bps)
    future_stats = future_stats.rename(columns={"open_time_ms": "current_open_time_ms"})
    current_feature = feature.rename(columns={"sample_id": "current_sample_id", "event_time": "current_event_time", "open_time_ms": "current_open_time_ms"})
    replay_state_source = _state_source_by_age(replay, ages)
    frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = []
    for age in ages:
        candidates = entry.copy()
        candidates["time_in_position_minutes"] = age
        candidates["add_count"] = 0.0
        candidates["minutes_since_last_add"] = 9999.0
        candidates["current_open_time_ms"] = candidates["entry_open_time_ms"] + age * 60_000
        candidates = candidates.merge(
            replay_state_source[replay_state_source["time_in_position_minutes"].eq(age)],
            on=["symbol", "current_open_time_ms", "time_in_position_minutes"],
            how="inner",
        )
        candidates = candidates.merge(current_feature, on=["symbol", "current_open_time_ms"], how="inner")
        candidates = candidates.merge(
            future_stats,
            left_on=["symbol", "current_open_time_ms", "side"],
            right_on=["symbol", "current_open_time_ms", "side"],
            how="inner",
        )
        if candidates.empty:
            continue
        frames.append(_state_rows_for_age(candidates, stop_bps, target_bps, cost_bps, min_continue_edge_bps))
        logging.info("trader.training.state_continue_age_built ageMinutes=%s rowCount=%s", age, len(candidates))
    if not frames:
        raise ValueError("state continue experiment produced no rows")
    out = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True)
    out = out.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan)
    required = [*FEATURE_ORDER, *STATE_FEATURES, "continue_target", "expected_continue_edge_bps"]
    out = out.dropna(subset=required).copy()
    return out


def _state_source_by_age(replay: pd.DataFrame, ages: list[int]) -> pd.DataFrame:
    frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = []
    for _, group in replay.groupby("symbol", sort=False, observed=False):
        group = group.sort_values("open_time_ms").copy()
        for age in ages:
            rolling_high = group["high"].rolling(age + 1, min_periods=age + 1).max()
            rolling_low = group["low"].rolling(age + 1, min_periods=age + 1).min()
            frame = pd.DataFrame(
                {
                    "symbol": group["symbol"],
                    "current_open_time_ms": group["open_time_ms"],
                    "time_in_position_minutes": age,
                    "entry_price": group["close"].shift(age),
                    "current_price": group["close"],
                    "high_since_entry": rolling_high,
                    "low_since_entry": rolling_low,
                }
            )
            frames.append(frame.dropna())
    return pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) if frames else pd.DataFrame()


def _state_rows_for_age(frame: pd.DataFrame, stop_bps: float, target_bps: float, cost_bps: float, min_continue_edge_bps: float = 5.0) -> pd.DataFrame:
    side_sign = np.where(frame["side"].eq("LONG"), 1.0, -1.0)
    entry_price = frame["entry_price"].astype(float)
    current_price = frame["current_price"].astype(float)
    high_since = frame["high_since_entry"].astype(float)
    low_since = frame["low_since_entry"].astype(float)

    long_mask = frame["side"].eq("LONG")
    unrealized = np.where(long_mask, (current_price / entry_price - 1.0) * 10000.0, (entry_price / current_price - 1.0) * 10000.0) - cost_bps
    mfe = np.where(long_mask, (high_since / entry_price - 1.0) * 10000.0, (entry_price / low_since - 1.0) * 10000.0)
    mae = np.where(long_mask, (entry_price / low_since - 1.0) * 10000.0, (high_since / entry_price - 1.0) * 10000.0)
    stop_price = np.where(long_mask, entry_price * (1.0 - stop_bps / 10000.0), entry_price * (1.0 + stop_bps / 10000.0))
    target_price = np.where(long_mask, entry_price * (1.0 + target_bps / 10000.0), entry_price * (1.0 - target_bps / 10000.0))
    distance_to_stop = np.where(long_mask, (current_price / stop_price - 1.0) * 10000.0, (stop_price / current_price - 1.0) * 10000.0)
    distance_to_target = np.where(long_mask, (target_price / current_price - 1.0) * 10000.0, (current_price / target_price - 1.0) * 10000.0)
    expected_edge = frame["future_return_bps"].astype(float) - cost_bps
    continue_target = ((expected_edge >= min_continue_edge_bps) & (frame["mae_bps"].astype(float) < stop_bps)).astype("int8")

    out = frame[
        [
            "current_sample_id",
            "symbol",
            "current_event_time",
            "current_open_time_ms",
            "side",
            "split_id",
            "walk_forward_fold",
            *FEATURE_ORDER,
        ]
    ].copy()
    out = out.rename(
        columns={
            "current_sample_id": "sample_id",
            "current_event_time": "event_time",
            "current_open_time_ms": "open_time_ms",
            "side": "position_side",
        }
    )
    out["position_side_sign"] = side_sign.astype("float32")
    out["time_in_position_minutes"] = frame["time_in_position_minutes"].astype("float32")
    out["unrealized_pnl_bps"] = unrealized.astype("float32")
    out["mfe_since_entry_bps"] = np.maximum(mfe, 0.0).astype("float32")
    out["mae_since_entry_bps"] = np.maximum(mae, 0.0).astype("float32")
    out["distance_to_stop_bps"] = distance_to_stop.astype("float32")
    out["distance_to_target_bps"] = distance_to_target.astype("float32")
    out["entry_predicted_edge_bps"] = frame["entry_predicted_edge_bps"].astype("float32")
    out["entry_direction_prob"] = frame["entry_direction_prob"].astype("float32")
    out["add_count"] = frame["add_count"].astype("float32")
    out["minutes_since_last_add"] = frame["minutes_since_last_add"].astype("float32")
    out["continue_target"] = continue_target
    out["expected_continue_edge_bps"] = expected_edge.astype("float32")
    return out


def _cap_rows_per_split(frame: pd.DataFrame, max_rows_per_split: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
    capped = []
    for split_id, part in frame.sort_values("event_time").groupby("split_id", sort=False, observed=False):
        if len(part) > max_rows_per_split:
            part = part.tail(max_rows_per_split).copy()
        capped.append(part)
        logging.info("trader.training.state_continue_split_capped splitId=%s rowCount=%s maxRows=%s", split_id, len(part), max_rows_per_split)
    return pd.concat(capped, ignore_index=True)


def _train_side_models(
    frame: pd.DataFrame,
    side: str,
    feature_columns: list[str],
    regressor_kind: str = "huber",
    ridge_alpha: float = 10.0,
    huber_max_iter: int = 1000,
    regression_target_clip_bps: float = 0.0,
) -> tuple[dict[str, Any], pd.DataFrame]:
    train = frame[frame["split_id"].eq(FIT_SPLIT)].copy()
    if train.empty:
        raise ValueError(f"state continue {side} has no fit_inner rows")
    scaler = StandardScaler()
    x_train = scaler.fit_transform(train[feature_columns].astype("float32"))
    y_train_cls = train["continue_target"].astype(int).to_numpy()
    y_train_reg = train["expected_continue_edge_bps"].astype(float).to_numpy()
    y_train_fit = y_train_reg
    if regression_target_clip_bps > 0:
        y_train_fit = np.clip(y_train_reg, -regression_target_clip_bps, regression_target_clip_bps)

    clf = LogisticRegression(max_iter=500)
    clf.fit(x_train, y_train_cls)
    reg_max_iter = huber_max_iter
    if regressor_kind == "huber":
        reg = HuberRegressor(alpha=0.001, epsilon=1.35, max_iter=reg_max_iter)
    elif regressor_kind == "ridge":
        reg = Ridge(alpha=ridge_alpha)
    else:
        raise ValueError(f"unsupported state continue regressor kind: {regressor_kind}")
    reg.fit(x_train, y_train_fit)

    metrics: dict[str, Any] = {}
    prediction_frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = []
    for split_id in ALL_SPLITS:
        part = frame[frame["split_id"].eq(split_id)].copy()
        if part.empty:
            continue
        x = scaler.transform(part[feature_columns].astype("float32"))
        y_cls = part["continue_target"].astype(int).to_numpy()
        y_reg = part["expected_continue_edge_bps"].astype(float).to_numpy()
        proba = clf.predict_proba(x)[:, 1]
        pred_edge = reg.predict(x)
        if regression_target_clip_bps > 0:
            pred_edge = np.clip(pred_edge, -regression_target_clip_bps, regression_target_clip_bps)
        metrics[split_id] = _split_metrics(y_train_cls, y_train_reg, y_cls, y_reg, proba, pred_edge)
        pred_frame = part[
            [
                "sample_id",
                "symbol",
                "event_time",
                "split_id",
                "position_side",
                "time_in_position_minutes",
                "unrealized_pnl_bps",
                "mfe_since_entry_bps",
                "mae_since_entry_bps",
                "entry_predicted_edge_bps",
                "entry_direction_prob",
                "continue_target",
                "expected_continue_edge_bps",
            ]
        ].copy()
        pred_frame["continue_prob"] = proba.astype("float32")
        pred_frame["predicted_continue_edge_bps"] = pred_edge.astype("float32")
        prediction_frames.append(pred_frame)
    metrics["row_count"] = int(len(frame))
    metrics["feature_count"] = len(feature_columns)
    metrics["feature_hash"] = sha256_json(feature_columns)
    n_iter = getattr(reg, "n_iter_", None)
    metrics["regressor_kind"] = regressor_kind
    metrics["ridge_alpha"] = ridge_alpha if regressor_kind == "ridge" else None
    metrics["regressor_iterations"] = int(n_iter) if n_iter is not None else 0
    metrics["regressor_max_iter"] = reg_max_iter
    metrics["regressor_converged"] = True if n_iter is None else 0 <= metrics["regressor_iterations"] < reg_max_iter
    metrics["regression_target_clip_bps"] = regression_target_clip_bps if regression_target_clip_bps > 0 else None
    return metrics, pd.concat(prediction_frames, ignore_index=True)


def _split_metrics(
    y_train_cls: np.ndarray,
    y_train_reg: np.ndarray,
    y_cls: np.ndarray,
    y_reg: np.ndarray,
    proba: np.ndarray,
    pred_edge: np.ndarray,
) -> dict[str, Any]:
    train_rate = float(np.mean(y_train_cls))
    constant_proba = np.full(len(y_cls), train_rate)
    train_median = float(np.median(y_train_reg))
    constant_edge = np.full(len(y_reg), train_median)
    out: dict[str, Any] = {
        "row_count": int(len(y_cls)),
        "positive_rate": float(np.mean(y_cls)),
        "brier": float(brier_score_loss(y_cls, proba)),
        "constant_brier": float(brier_score_loss(y_cls, constant_proba)),
        "edge_mae": float(mean_absolute_error(y_reg, pred_edge)),
        "edge_constant_mae": float(mean_absolute_error(y_reg, constant_edge)),
    }
    if len(np.unique(y_cls)) == 2:
        out["continue_auc"] = float(roc_auc_score(y_cls, proba))
    out["brier_vs_constant_ratio"] = float(out["brier"] / out["constant_brier"]) if out["constant_brier"] > 0 else None
    out["edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio"] = float(out["edge_mae"] / out["edge_constant_mae"]) if out["edge_constant_mae"] > 0 else None
    return out


def _source_manifest(
    args: Any,
    baseline_root: Path,
    ages: list[int],
    stop_bps: float,
    target_bps: float,
    cost_bps: float,
    continue_horizon: int,
    min_continue_edge_bps: float,
    state_frame: pd.DataFrame,
    dataset_hash: str,
    regressor_kind: str,
    ridge_alpha: float,
    huber_max_iter: int,
    regression_target_clip_bps: float,
) -> dict[str, Any]:
    return {
        "experiment": "state_continue_diagnostic_v1",
        "run_id": args.run_id,
        "baseline_run_id": args.baseline_run_id,
        "baseline_root": str(baseline_root),
        "ages_minutes": ages,
        "target_bps": target_bps,
        "stop_bps": stop_bps,
        "cost_bps": cost_bps,
        "continue_horizon_minutes": continue_horizon,
        "min_continue_edge_bps": min_continue_edge_bps,
        "regressor_kind": regressor_kind,
        "ridge_alpha": ridge_alpha if regressor_kind == "ridge" else None,
        "huber_max_iter": huber_max_iter if regressor_kind == "huber" else None,
        "regression_target_clip_bps": regression_target_clip_bps if regression_target_clip_bps > 0 else None,
        "dataset_hash_sha256": dataset_hash,
        "row_count": int(len(state_frame)),
        "split_counts": state_frame["split_id"].value_counts().to_dict(),
        "side_counts": state_frame["position_side"].value_counts().to_dict(),
        "feature_inputs": {
            "market_feature_count": len(FEATURE_ORDER),
            "state_features": STATE_FEATURES,
            "state_feature_count": len(STATE_FEATURES),
        },
        "leakage_policy": {
            "uses_future_entry_label_as_feature": False,
            "uses_same_round_model_prediction_as_feature": False,
            "entry_predicted_edge_bps": "baseline frozen ENTRY ONNX output selected by side",
            "entry_direction_prob": "baseline frozen DIRECTION ONNX output selected by side",
            "add_count": "synthetic first-position diagnostic, fixed to 0",
            "minutes_since_last_add": "synthetic first-position diagnostic, fixed to 9999",
        },
    }


def _state_feature_schema() -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
    return [
        {"name": "position_side_sign", "unit": "-1/1", "source": "synthetic position state", "leakage_check": "known at current position time"},
        {"name": "time_in_position_minutes", "unit": "minute", "source": "entry time to current time", "leakage_check": "known at current position time"},
        {"name": "unrealized_pnl_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "entry price and current close", "leakage_check": "uses <= current time price"},
        {"name": "mfe_since_entry_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "high since entry", "leakage_check": "uses only entry..current high"},
        {"name": "mae_since_entry_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "low/high since entry", "leakage_check": "uses only entry..current low/high"},
        {"name": "distance_to_stop_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "price plan and current close", "leakage_check": "uses fixed plan and current price"},
        {"name": "distance_to_target_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "price plan and current close", "leakage_check": "uses fixed plan and current price"},
        {"name": "entry_predicted_edge_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "baseline frozen ENTRY ONNX", "leakage_check": "baseline model is fixed before this experiment"},
        {"name": "entry_direction_prob", "unit": "probability", "source": "baseline frozen DIRECTION ONNX", "leakage_check": "baseline model is fixed before this experiment"},
        {"name": "add_count", "unit": "count", "source": "synthetic position state", "leakage_check": "known at current position time"},
        {"name": "minutes_since_last_add", "unit": "minute", "source": "synthetic position state", "leakage_check": "known at current position time"},
    ]


def _verdict(results: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]:
    reasons: list[str] = []
    passed_checks: list[str] = []
    for side in ("long", "short"):
        plus = results[f"{side}_market_plus_state"]
        base = results[f"{side}_market_only"]
        if not plus.get("regressor_converged"):
            reasons.append(f"{side} market_plus_state regressor did not converge")
        for split_id in (VALIDATION_LOCKED_SPLIT, LATEST_STRESS_SPLIT):
            plus_metric = plus.get(split_id, {})
            base_metric = base.get(split_id, {})
            plus_auc = plus_metric.get("continue_auc")
            base_auc = base_metric.get("continue_auc")
            plus_mae = plus_metric.get("edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio")
            base_mae = base_metric.get("edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio")
            if plus_auc is None or plus_auc < 0.60:
                reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} continue_auc below 0.60: {plus_auc}")
            elif base_auc is not None and plus_auc <= base_auc:
                reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} continue_auc not better than market_only: {plus_auc} <= {base_auc}")
            else:
                passed_checks.append(f"{side} {split_id} continue_auc")
            if plus_mae is None or plus_mae > 0.97:
                reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio above 0.97: {plus_mae}")
            elif base_mae is not None and plus_mae >= base_mae:
                reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio not better than market_only: {plus_mae} >= {base_mae}")
            else:
                passed_checks.append(f"{side} {split_id} edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio")
    return {
        "status": "PASS_TO_FORMAL_CHAIN" if not reasons else "NOT_READY_FOR_FORMAL_CHAIN",
        "acceptance_rule": {
            "validation_and_latest_auc_min": 0.60,
            "validation_and_latest_edge_mae_vs_constant_max": 0.97,
            "must_beat_market_only": True,
            "regressor_must_converge": True,
        },
        "passed_checks": passed_checks,
        "reasons": reasons,
    }


def _report(args: Any, baseline_root: Path, manifest: dict[str, Any], results: dict[str, Any], verdict: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
    baseline = read_json(baseline_root / "model" / "model_train_manifest.json")
    continue_metrics = baseline["CONTINUE"]["metrics"]
    lines = [
        "# State Continue Experiment Report",
        "",
        f"- run_id: `{args.run_id}`",
        f"- baseline_run_id: `{args.baseline_run_id}`",
        f"- row_count: `{manifest['row_count']}`",
        f"- ages_minutes: `{manifest['ages_minutes']}`",
        f"- regressor_kind: `{manifest['regressor_kind']}`",
        f"- huber_max_iter: `{manifest['huber_max_iter']}`",
        f"- regression_target_clip_bps: `{manifest['regression_target_clip_bps']}`",
        f"- continue_horizon_minutes: `{manifest['continue_horizon_minutes']}`",
        f"- min_continue_edge_bps: `{manifest['min_continue_edge_bps']}`",
        "",
        "## Baseline run-10 Continue",
        "",
        "| head | auc | mae_vs_constant |",
        "| --- | ---: | ---: |",
        f"| long_continue_prob | {continue_metrics['long_continue_prob'].get('auc')} |  |",
        f"| short_continue_prob | {continue_metrics['short_continue_prob'].get('auc')} |  |",
        f"| long_expected_continue_edge_bps |  | {continue_metrics['long_expected_continue_edge_bps'].get('mae_vs_constant_ratio')} |",
        f"| short_expected_continue_edge_bps |  | {continue_metrics['short_expected_continue_edge_bps'].get('mae_vs_constant_ratio')} |",
        "",
        "## Diagnostic Result",
        "",
        "| side | feature_set | split | rows | auc | brier_ratio | mae_ratio |",
        "| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |",
    ]
    for key, item in results.items():
        side, feature_set = key.split("_", 1)
        for split_id in EVAL_SPLITS:
            metric = item.get(split_id, {})
            lines.append(
                f"| {side.upper()} | {feature_set} | {split_id} | {metric.get('row_count')} | {metric.get('continue_auc')} | {metric.get('brier_vs_constant_ratio')} | {metric.get('edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio')} |"
            )
    lines.extend(
        [
            "",
            "## Verdict Rule",
            "",
            "状态特征只有在 `market_plus_state` 同时好过 `market_only`，并且 validation_locked / latest_stress 没有反向变差时，才进入正式链路。",
            "",
            "## Verdict",
            "",
            f"- status: `{verdict['status']}`",
            f"- reasons: `{len(verdict['reasons'])}`",
            "",
        ]
    )
    for reason in verdict["reasons"]:
        lines.append(f"- {reason}")
    if verdict["passed_checks"]:
        lines.extend(["", "## Passed Checks", ""])
        for item in verdict["passed_checks"]:
            lines.append(f"- {item}")
    return "\n".join(lines)