Add state Continue diagnostic controls

training/scripts/22_train_state_continue_experiment.py

@@ -13,6 +13,10 @@ def main() -> None:
     parser.add_argument("--baseline-run-id", required=True)
     parser.add_argument("--ages-minutes", default="5,15,30")
     parser.add_argument("--max-rows-per-split", type=int, default=0)
+    parser.add_argument("--regressor-kind", choices=["huber", "ridge"], default="huber")
+    parser.add_argument("--ridge-alpha", type=float, default=10.0)
+    parser.add_argument("--huber-max-iter", type=int, default=1000)
+    parser.add_argument("--regression-target-clip-bps", type=float, default=0.0)
     args = parser.parse_args()
     setup_logging()
     run_state_continue_experiment(args)

training/tests/test_state_continue_experiment.py

@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sys
+import tempfile
+import unittest
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+TRAINING_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+if str(TRAINING_ROOT) not in sys.path:
+    sys.path.insert(0, str(TRAINING_ROOT))
+
+from trader_training.onnx_export import LinearHead, export_heads
+from trader_training.schemas import FEATURE_ORDER
+from trader_training.state_continue_experiment import STATE_FEATURES, _predict_frozen_linear_model, _state_rows_for_age, _train_side_models, _verdict
+
+
+class StateContinueExperimentTest(unittest.TestCase):
+    def test_state_rows_include_required_position_and_frozen_entry_features(self) -> None:
+        row = {
+            "current_sample_id": "s0",
+            "symbol": "BTC-USDT-PERP",
+            "current_event_time": pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01T00:05:00Z"),
+            "current_open_time_ms": 300_000,
+            "side": "LONG",
+            "split_id": "fit_inner",
+            "walk_forward_fold": 0,
+            "time_in_position_minutes": 5,
+            "entry_price": 100.0,
+            "current_price": 100.1,
+            "high_since_entry": 100.2,
+            "low_since_entry": 99.95,
+            "future_return_bps": 12.0,
+            "mae_bps": 3.0,
+            "entry_predicted_edge_bps": 8.5,
+            "entry_direction_prob": 0.64,
+            "add_count": 0.0,
+            "minutes_since_last_add": 9999.0,
+        }
+        for feature_name in FEATURE_ORDER:
+            row[feature_name] = 0.0
+        frame = pd.DataFrame([row])
+
+        out = _state_rows_for_age(frame, stop_bps=8.0, target_bps=12.0, cost_bps=6.5)
+
+        self.assertEqual(set(STATE_FEATURES), set(STATE_FEATURES).intersection(out.columns))
+        self.assertAlmostEqual(5.5, float(out.iloc[0]["expected_continue_edge_bps"]))
+        self.assertEqual(1, int(out.iloc[0]["continue_target"]))
+        self.assertAlmostEqual(8.5, float(out.iloc[0]["entry_predicted_edge_bps"]))
+        self.assertAlmostEqual(0.64, float(out.iloc[0]["entry_direction_prob"]), places=6)
+        self.assertAlmostEqual(0.0, float(out.iloc[0]["add_count"]))
+        self.assertAlmostEqual(9999.0, float(out.iloc[0]["minutes_since_last_add"]))
+
+    def test_frozen_linear_onnx_weights_are_read_without_row_by_row_runtime(self) -> None:
+        with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as tmp:
+            model_path = Path(tmp) / "direction.onnx"
+            export_heads(
+                model_path,
+                [
+                    LinearHead(
+                        "direction",
+                        "softmax",
+                        np.zeros((len(FEATURE_ORDER), 3), dtype=np.float32),
+                        np.array([0.0, 1.0, 2.0], dtype=np.float32),
+                    ),
+                    LinearHead(
+                        "long_expected_net_edge_bps",
+                        "identity",
+                        np.zeros((len(FEATURE_ORDER), 1), dtype=np.float32),
+                        np.array([7.25], dtype=np.float32),
+                    ),
+                ],
+                feature_count=len(FEATURE_ORDER),
+            )
+            frame = pd.DataFrame({"sample_id": ["s0", "s1"]})
+            for feature_name in FEATURE_ORDER:
+                frame[feature_name] = 0.0
+
+            out = _predict_frozen_linear_model(
+                model_path,
+                frame,
+                {
+                    "direction": ("softmax", ("long_prob", "short_prob", "neutral_prob")),
+                    "long_expected_net_edge_bps": ("identity", ("long_edge",)),
+                },
+            )
+
+            self.assertEqual(["s0", "s1"], out["sample_id"].tolist())
+            self.assertTrue(np.allclose(1.0, out[["long_prob", "short_prob", "neutral_prob"]].sum(axis=1)))
+            self.assertLess(float(out.iloc[0]["long_prob"]), float(out.iloc[0]["neutral_prob"]))
+            self.assertAlmostEqual(7.25, float(out.iloc[0]["long_edge"]), places=6)
+
+    def test_verdict_refuses_state_continue_when_edge_mae_is_not_good_enough(self) -> None:
+        results = {}
+        for side in ("long", "short"):
+            results[f"{side}_market_only"] = {
+                "validation_locked": {"continue_auc": 0.61, "edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio": 0.985},
+                "latest_stress": {"continue_auc": 0.62, "edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio": 0.984},
+                "regressor_converged": True,
+            }
+            results[f"{side}_market_plus_state"] = {
+                "validation_locked": {"continue_auc": 0.63, "edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio": 0.979},
+                "latest_stress": {"continue_auc": 0.64, "edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio": 0.978},
+                "regressor_converged": True,
+            }
+
+        verdict = _verdict(results)
+
+        self.assertEqual("NOT_READY_FOR_FORMAL_CHAIN", verdict["status"])
+        self.assertTrue(any("above 0.97" in reason for reason in verdict["reasons"]))
+
+    def test_train_side_models_supports_ridge_regressor_diagnostic(self) -> None:
+        rows = []
+        for split_id in ("fit_inner", "tune_inner", "validation_locked", "latest_stress"):
+            for index, target in enumerate((0, 1)):
+                row = {
+                    "sample_id": f"{split_id}-{index}",
+                    "symbol": "BTC-USDT-PERP",
+                    "event_time": pd.Timestamp("2026-01-01T00:00:00Z") + pd.Timedelta(minutes=len(rows)),
+                    "split_id": split_id,
+                    "position_side": "LONG",
+                    "continue_target": target,
+                    "expected_continue_edge_bps": -3.0 if target == 0 else 6.0,
+                }
+                for feature_name in FEATURE_ORDER:
+                    row[feature_name] = float(index)
+                for feature_name in STATE_FEATURES:
+                    row[feature_name] = float(index)
+                rows.append(row)
+        frame = pd.DataFrame(rows)
+
+        metrics, predictions = _train_side_models(
+            frame,
+            "LONG",
+            [*FEATURE_ORDER, *STATE_FEATURES],
+            regressor_kind="ridge",
+            ridge_alpha=1.0,
+            regression_target_clip_bps=5.0,
+        )
+
+        self.assertEqual("ridge", metrics["regressor_kind"])
+        self.assertEqual(5.0, metrics["regression_target_clip_bps"])
+        self.assertTrue(metrics["regressor_converged"])
+        self.assertEqual(8, len(predictions))
+        self.assertIn("time_in_position_minutes", predictions.columns)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    unittest.main()

training/trader_training/state_continue_experiment.py

@@ -7,12 +7,12 @@ from typing import Any
 
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
-from sklearn.linear_model import HuberRegressor, LogisticRegression
+from sklearn.linear_model import HuberRegressor, LogisticRegression, Ridge
 from sklearn.metrics import brier_score_loss, mean_absolute_error, roc_auc_score
 from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
 
 from trader_training.io_utils import read_json, read_parquet, run_root, sha256_json, write_json, write_parquet, write_text
-from trader_training.labels import _build_path_stats
+from trader_training.labels import DEFAULT_LABEL_CONFIG, _build_path_stats
 from trader_training.schemas import FEATURE_ORDER, FIT_SPLIT, LATEST_STRESS_SPLIT, TUNE_SPLIT, VALIDATION_LOCKED_SPLIT
 
 
@@ -24,6 +24,10 @@ STATE_FEATURES = [
     "mae_since_entry_bps",
     "distance_to_stop_bps",
     "distance_to_target_bps",
+    "entry_predicted_edge_bps",
+    "entry_direction_prob",
+    "add_count",
+    "minutes_since_last_add",
 ]
 
 EVAL_SPLITS = (TUNE_SPLIT, VALIDATION_LOCKED_SPLIT, LATEST_STRESS_SPLIT)
@@ -35,22 +39,32 @@ def run_state_continue_experiment(args: Any) -> None:
     baseline_root = args.data_root / "trader-v4" / "runs" / args.baseline_run_id
     out_dir = root / "experiments" / "state_continue"
     ages = _parse_ages(args.ages_minutes)
+    regressor_kind = getattr(args, "regressor_kind", "huber")
+    ridge_alpha = float(getattr(args, "ridge_alpha", 10.0))
+    huber_max_iter = int(getattr(args, "huber_max_iter", 1000))
+    regression_target_clip_bps = float(getattr(args, "regression_target_clip_bps", 0.0))
     logging.info(
-        "trader.training.state_continue_experiment_started runId=%s baselineRunId=%s ages=%s",
+        "trader.training.state_continue_experiment_started runId=%s baselineRunId=%s ages=%s regressorKind=%s ridgeAlpha=%s huberMaxIter=%s regressionTargetClipBps=%s",
         args.run_id,
         args.baseline_run_id,
         ages,
+        regressor_kind,
+        ridge_alpha,
+        huber_max_iter,
+        regression_target_clip_bps,
     )
 
     feature = _load_feature_frame(baseline_root)
-    entry = _load_entry_labels(baseline_root)
+    entry = _load_entry_labels(baseline_root, feature)
     replay = _load_replay(baseline_root)
     plan = read_json(baseline_root / "label" / "price_plan_context.json")
     stop_bps = float(plan["stopDistanceBps"])
     target_bps = float(plan["targetDistanceBps"])
     cost_bps = float(plan["costBps"])
+    continue_horizon = int(DEFAULT_LABEL_CONFIG["continue"]["horizon_minutes"])
+    min_continue_edge_bps = float(DEFAULT_LABEL_CONFIG["continue"]["min_expected_continue_edge_bps"])
 
-    state_frame = _build_state_frame(feature, entry, replay, ages, stop_bps, target_bps, cost_bps)
+    state_frame = _build_state_frame(feature, entry, replay, ages, stop_bps, target_bps, cost_bps, continue_horizon, min_continue_edge_bps)
     if args.max_rows_per_split:
         state_frame = _cap_rows_per_split(state_frame, int(args.max_rows_per_split))
     dataset_hash = write_parquet(out_dir / "state_continue_train.parquet", state_frame)
@@ -62,17 +76,33 @@ def run_state_continue_experiment(args: Any) -> None:
         out_dir / "state_continue_train.parquet",
     )
 
-    source_manifest = _source_manifest(args, baseline_root, ages, stop_bps, target_bps, cost_bps, state_frame, dataset_hash)
+    source_manifest = _source_manifest(
+        args,
+        baseline_root,
+        ages,
+        stop_bps,
+        target_bps,
+        cost_bps,
+        continue_horizon,
+        min_continue_edge_bps,
+        state_frame,
+        dataset_hash,
+        regressor_kind,
+        ridge_alpha,
+        huber_max_iter,
+        regression_target_clip_bps,
+    )
     write_json(out_dir / "experiment_manifest.json", source_manifest)
     write_json(out_dir / "position_state_feature_schema.json", _state_feature_schema())
     order_hash = write_json(out_dir / "position_state_feature_order.json", STATE_FEATURES)
     write_json(
         out_dir / "position_state_source_manifest.json",
         {
-            "entry_predicted_edge_bps": "NOT_USED_IN_THIS_DIAGNOSTIC",
+            "entry_predicted_edge_bps": "run-10 frozen ENTRY ONNX output selected by entry side",
-            "entry_direction_prob": "NOT_USED_IN_THIS_DIAGNOSTIC",
+            "entry_direction_prob": "run-10 frozen DIRECTION ONNX output selected by entry side",
             "out_of_fold_used": False,
-            "frozen_model_output_used": False,
+            "frozen_model_output_used": True,
+            "frozen_model_output_policy": "baseline model is fixed and is not retrained inside this experiment",
             "replay_decision_trace_used": False,
             "state_feature_order_hash": order_hash,
             "row_count": len(state_frame),
@@ -90,7 +120,7 @@ def run_state_continue_experiment(args: Any) -> None:
         side_frame = state_frame[state_frame["position_side"].eq(side)].copy()
         for feature_set_name, feature_columns in feature_sets.items():
             key = f"{side.lower()}_{feature_set_name}"
-            result, predictions = _train_side_models(side_frame, side, feature_columns)
+            result, predictions = _train_side_models(side_frame, side, feature_columns, regressor_kind, ridge_alpha, huber_max_iter, regression_target_clip_bps)
             results[key] = result
             predictions["side"] = side
             predictions["feature_set"] = feature_set_name
@@ -105,9 +135,11 @@ def run_state_continue_experiment(args: Any) -> None:
             )
 
     predictions = pd.concat(prediction_frames, ignore_index=True) if prediction_frames else pd.DataFrame()
+    verdict = _verdict(results)
     write_parquet(out_dir / "state_continue_predictions.parquet", predictions)
     write_json(out_dir / "state_continue_result.json", results)
-    write_text(out_dir / "state_continue_experiment_report.md", _report(args, baseline_root, source_manifest, results))
+    write_json(out_dir / "state_continue_verdict.json", verdict)
+    write_text(out_dir / "state_continue_experiment_report.md", _report(args, baseline_root, source_manifest, results, verdict))
     logging.info("trader.training.state_continue_experiment_finished runId=%s report=%s", args.run_id, out_dir / "state_continue_experiment_report.md")
 
 
@@ -129,7 +161,7 @@ def _load_feature_frame(baseline_root: Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
     return feature
 
 
-def _load_entry_labels(baseline_root: Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
+def _load_entry_labels(baseline_root: Path, feature: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
     entry = read_parquet(baseline_root / "label" / "entry_labels.parquet")
     required = {"sample_id", "symbol", "event_time", "side", "entry_target", "split_id", "walk_forward_fold"}
     missing = sorted(required.difference(entry.columns))
@@ -137,7 +169,82 @@ def _load_entry_labels(baseline_root: Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
         raise ValueError(f"baseline entry labels missing columns: {missing}")
     entry = entry[(entry["entry_target"] == 1) & (entry["side"].isin(["LONG", "SHORT"]))].copy()
     entry["entry_open_time_ms"] = pd.to_datetime(entry["event_time"], utc=True).astype("int64") // 1_000_000
-    return entry[["sample_id", "symbol", "event_time", "side", "entry_open_time_ms"]].copy()
+    entry_scores = _frozen_entry_scores_by_sample(baseline_root, feature)
+    entry = entry.merge(entry_scores, on="sample_id", how="inner")
+    if entry.empty:
+        raise ValueError("state continue entry set is empty after merging frozen baseline model outputs")
+    long_mask = entry["side"].eq("LONG")
+    entry["entry_predicted_edge_bps"] = np.where(
+        long_mask,
+        entry["frozen_long_expected_net_edge_bps"],
+        entry["frozen_short_expected_net_edge_bps"],
+    )
+    entry["entry_direction_prob"] = np.where(long_mask, entry["frozen_long_prob"], entry["frozen_short_prob"])
+    return entry[["sample_id", "symbol", "event_time", "side", "entry_open_time_ms", "entry_predicted_edge_bps", "entry_direction_prob"]].copy()
+
+
+def _frozen_entry_scores_by_sample(baseline_root: Path, feature: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    source = feature[["sample_id", *FEATURE_ORDER]].drop_duplicates("sample_id").copy()
+    direction = _predict_frozen_linear_model(
+        baseline_root / "model" / "direction" / "direction.onnx",
+        source,
+        {
+            "direction": ("softmax", ("frozen_long_prob", "frozen_short_prob", "frozen_neutral_prob")),
+        },
+    )
+    entry = _predict_frozen_linear_model(
+        baseline_root / "model" / "entry" / "entry.onnx",
+        source,
+        {
+            "long_entry_prob": ("sigmoid", ("frozen_long_entry_prob",)),
+            "short_entry_prob": ("sigmoid", ("frozen_short_entry_prob",)),
+            "long_expected_net_edge_bps": ("identity", ("frozen_long_expected_net_edge_bps",)),
+            "short_expected_net_edge_bps": ("identity", ("frozen_short_expected_net_edge_bps",)),
+        },
+    )
+    return direction.merge(entry, on="sample_id", how="inner")
+
+
+def _predict_frozen_linear_model(model_path: Path, frame: pd.DataFrame, heads: dict[str, tuple[str, tuple[str, ...]]]) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    try:
+        import onnx
+        from onnx import numpy_helper
+    except ModuleNotFoundError as exc:
+        raise SystemExit("Python package 'onnx' is required to read frozen baseline ONNX weights.") from exc
+    if not model_path.is_file():
+        raise FileNotFoundError(f"frozen model is missing: {model_path}")
+    model = onnx.load(model_path)
+    initializers = {item.name: numpy_helper.to_array(item) for item in model.graph.initializer}
+    x = frame[FEATURE_ORDER].apply(pd.to_numeric, errors="coerce").replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).fillna(0.0).astype("float32").to_numpy()
+    out = pd.DataFrame({"sample_id": frame["sample_id"].to_numpy()})
+    for head_name, (kind, output_columns) in heads.items():
+        weight_name = f"{head_name}_W"
+        bias_name = f"{head_name}_B"
+        if weight_name not in initializers or bias_name not in initializers:
+            raise ValueError(f"frozen model {model_path} is missing head initializers: {head_name}")
+        values = x @ np.asarray(initializers[weight_name], dtype=np.float32) + np.asarray(initializers[bias_name], dtype=np.float32).reshape(1, -1)
+        if kind == "softmax":
+            values = _softmax(values)
+        elif kind == "sigmoid":
+            values = _sigmoid(values)
+        elif kind != "identity":
+            raise ValueError(f"unsupported frozen head kind: {kind}")
+        if values.shape[1] != len(output_columns):
+            raise ValueError(f"head {head_name} output width mismatch: {values.shape[1]} != {len(output_columns)}")
+        for index, column in enumerate(output_columns):
+            out[column] = values[:, index].astype("float32")
+    return out
+
+
+def _softmax(values: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    shifted = values - np.max(values, axis=1, keepdims=True)
+    exp = np.exp(shifted)
+    return exp / exp.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
+
+
+def _sigmoid(values: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    clipped = np.clip(values, -50.0, 50.0)
+    return 1.0 / (1.0 + np.exp(-clipped))
 
 
 def _load_replay(baseline_root: Path) -> pd.DataFrame:
@@ -159,8 +266,10 @@ def _build_state_frame(
     stop_bps: float,
     target_bps: float,
     cost_bps: float,
+    continue_horizon: int,
+    min_continue_edge_bps: float,
 ) -> pd.DataFrame:
-    future_stats = _build_path_stats(replay, horizon=30, target_bps=target_bps, stop_bps=stop_bps)
+    future_stats = _build_path_stats(replay, horizon=continue_horizon, target_bps=target_bps, stop_bps=stop_bps)
     future_stats = future_stats.rename(columns={"open_time_ms": "current_open_time_ms"})
     current_feature = feature.rename(columns={"sample_id": "current_sample_id", "event_time": "current_event_time", "open_time_ms": "current_open_time_ms"})
     replay_state_source = _state_source_by_age(replay, ages)
@@ -168,6 +277,8 @@ def _build_state_frame(
     for age in ages:
         candidates = entry.copy()
         candidates["time_in_position_minutes"] = age
+        candidates["add_count"] = 0.0
+        candidates["minutes_since_last_add"] = 9999.0
         candidates["current_open_time_ms"] = candidates["entry_open_time_ms"] + age * 60_000
         candidates = candidates.merge(
             replay_state_source[replay_state_source["time_in_position_minutes"].eq(age)],
@@ -183,7 +294,7 @@ def _build_state_frame(
         )
         if candidates.empty:
             continue
-        frames.append(_state_rows_for_age(candidates, stop_bps, target_bps, cost_bps))
+        frames.append(_state_rows_for_age(candidates, stop_bps, target_bps, cost_bps, min_continue_edge_bps))
         logging.info("trader.training.state_continue_age_built ageMinutes=%s rowCount=%s", age, len(candidates))
     if not frames:
         raise ValueError("state continue experiment produced no rows")
@@ -216,7 +327,7 @@ def _state_source_by_age(replay: pd.DataFrame, ages: list[int]) -> pd.DataFrame:
     return pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) if frames else pd.DataFrame()
 
 
-def _state_rows_for_age(frame: pd.DataFrame, stop_bps: float, target_bps: float, cost_bps: float) -> pd.DataFrame:
+def _state_rows_for_age(frame: pd.DataFrame, stop_bps: float, target_bps: float, cost_bps: float, min_continue_edge_bps: float = 5.0) -> pd.DataFrame:
     side_sign = np.where(frame["side"].eq("LONG"), 1.0, -1.0)
     entry_price = frame["entry_price"].astype(float)
     current_price = frame["current_price"].astype(float)
@@ -232,7 +343,7 @@ def _state_rows_for_age(frame: pd.DataFrame, stop_bps: float, target_bps: float,
     distance_to_stop = np.where(long_mask, (current_price / stop_price - 1.0) * 10000.0, (stop_price / current_price - 1.0) * 10000.0)
     distance_to_target = np.where(long_mask, (target_price / current_price - 1.0) * 10000.0, (current_price / target_price - 1.0) * 10000.0)
     expected_edge = frame["future_return_bps"].astype(float) - cost_bps
-    continue_target = ((expected_edge >= 2.0) & (frame["mae_bps"].astype(float) < stop_bps)).astype("int8")
+    continue_target = ((expected_edge >= min_continue_edge_bps) & (frame["mae_bps"].astype(float) < stop_bps)).astype("int8")
 
     out = frame[
         [
@@ -261,6 +372,10 @@ def _state_rows_for_age(frame: pd.DataFrame, stop_bps: float, target_bps: float,
     out["mae_since_entry_bps"] = np.maximum(mae, 0.0).astype("float32")
     out["distance_to_stop_bps"] = distance_to_stop.astype("float32")
     out["distance_to_target_bps"] = distance_to_target.astype("float32")
+    out["entry_predicted_edge_bps"] = frame["entry_predicted_edge_bps"].astype("float32")
+    out["entry_direction_prob"] = frame["entry_direction_prob"].astype("float32")
+    out["add_count"] = frame["add_count"].astype("float32")
+    out["minutes_since_last_add"] = frame["minutes_since_last_add"].astype("float32")
     out["continue_target"] = continue_target
     out["expected_continue_edge_bps"] = expected_edge.astype("float32")
     return out
@@ -276,7 +391,15 @@ def _cap_rows_per_split(frame: pd.DataFrame, max_rows_per_split: int) -> pd.Data
     return pd.concat(capped, ignore_index=True)
 
 
-def _train_side_models(frame: pd.DataFrame, side: str, feature_columns: list[str]) -> tuple[dict[str, Any], pd.DataFrame]:
+def _train_side_models(
+    frame: pd.DataFrame,
+    side: str,
+    feature_columns: list[str],
+    regressor_kind: str = "huber",
+    ridge_alpha: float = 10.0,
+    huber_max_iter: int = 1000,
+    regression_target_clip_bps: float = 0.0,
+) -> tuple[dict[str, Any], pd.DataFrame]:
     train = frame[frame["split_id"].eq(FIT_SPLIT)].copy()
     if train.empty:
         raise ValueError(f"state continue {side} has no fit_inner rows")
@@ -284,11 +407,20 @@ def _train_side_models(frame: pd.DataFrame, side: str, feature_columns: list[str
     x_train = scaler.fit_transform(train[feature_columns].astype("float32"))
     y_train_cls = train["continue_target"].astype(int).to_numpy()
     y_train_reg = train["expected_continue_edge_bps"].astype(float).to_numpy()
+    y_train_fit = y_train_reg
+    if regression_target_clip_bps > 0:
+        y_train_fit = np.clip(y_train_reg, -regression_target_clip_bps, regression_target_clip_bps)
 
     clf = LogisticRegression(max_iter=500)
     clf.fit(x_train, y_train_cls)
-    reg = HuberRegressor(alpha=0.001, epsilon=1.35, max_iter=300)
+    reg_max_iter = huber_max_iter
-    reg.fit(x_train, y_train_reg)
+    if regressor_kind == "huber":
+        reg = HuberRegressor(alpha=0.001, epsilon=1.35, max_iter=reg_max_iter)
+    elif regressor_kind == "ridge":
+        reg = Ridge(alpha=ridge_alpha)
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(f"unsupported state continue regressor kind: {regressor_kind}")
+    reg.fit(x_train, y_train_fit)
 
     metrics: dict[str, Any] = {}
     prediction_frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = []
@@ -301,14 +433,39 @@ def _train_side_models(frame: pd.DataFrame, side: str, feature_columns: list[str
         y_reg = part["expected_continue_edge_bps"].astype(float).to_numpy()
         proba = clf.predict_proba(x)[:, 1]
         pred_edge = reg.predict(x)
+        if regression_target_clip_bps > 0:
+            pred_edge = np.clip(pred_edge, -regression_target_clip_bps, regression_target_clip_bps)
         metrics[split_id] = _split_metrics(y_train_cls, y_train_reg, y_cls, y_reg, proba, pred_edge)
-        pred_frame = part[["sample_id", "symbol", "event_time", "split_id", "position_side", "continue_target", "expected_continue_edge_bps"]].copy()
+        pred_frame = part[
+            [
+                "sample_id",
+                "symbol",
+                "event_time",
+                "split_id",
+                "position_side",
+                "time_in_position_minutes",
+                "unrealized_pnl_bps",
+                "mfe_since_entry_bps",
+                "mae_since_entry_bps",
+                "entry_predicted_edge_bps",
+                "entry_direction_prob",
+                "continue_target",
+                "expected_continue_edge_bps",
+            ]
+        ].copy()
         pred_frame["continue_prob"] = proba.astype("float32")
         pred_frame["predicted_continue_edge_bps"] = pred_edge.astype("float32")
         prediction_frames.append(pred_frame)
     metrics["row_count"] = int(len(frame))
     metrics["feature_count"] = len(feature_columns)
     metrics["feature_hash"] = sha256_json(feature_columns)
+    n_iter = getattr(reg, "n_iter_", None)
+    metrics["regressor_kind"] = regressor_kind
+    metrics["ridge_alpha"] = ridge_alpha if regressor_kind == "ridge" else None
+    metrics["regressor_iterations"] = int(n_iter) if n_iter is not None else 0
+    metrics["regressor_max_iter"] = reg_max_iter
+    metrics["regressor_converged"] = True if n_iter is None else 0 <= metrics["regressor_iterations"] < reg_max_iter
+    metrics["regression_target_clip_bps"] = regression_target_clip_bps if regression_target_clip_bps > 0 else None
     return metrics, pd.concat(prediction_frames, ignore_index=True)
 
 
@@ -346,8 +503,14 @@ def _source_manifest(
     stop_bps: float,
     target_bps: float,
     cost_bps: float,
+    continue_horizon: int,
+    min_continue_edge_bps: float,
     state_frame: pd.DataFrame,
     dataset_hash: str,
+    regressor_kind: str,
+    ridge_alpha: float,
+    huber_max_iter: int,
+    regression_target_clip_bps: float,
 ) -> dict[str, Any]:
     return {
         "experiment": "state_continue_diagnostic_v1",
@@ -358,6 +521,12 @@ def _source_manifest(
         "target_bps": target_bps,
         "stop_bps": stop_bps,
         "cost_bps": cost_bps,
+        "continue_horizon_minutes": continue_horizon,
+        "min_continue_edge_bps": min_continue_edge_bps,
+        "regressor_kind": regressor_kind,
+        "ridge_alpha": ridge_alpha if regressor_kind == "ridge" else None,
+        "huber_max_iter": huber_max_iter if regressor_kind == "huber" else None,
+        "regression_target_clip_bps": regression_target_clip_bps if regression_target_clip_bps > 0 else None,
         "dataset_hash_sha256": dataset_hash,
         "row_count": int(len(state_frame)),
         "split_counts": state_frame["split_id"].value_counts().to_dict(),
@@ -370,8 +539,10 @@ def _source_manifest(
         "leakage_policy": {
             "uses_future_entry_label_as_feature": False,
             "uses_same_round_model_prediction_as_feature": False,
-            "entry_predicted_edge_bps": "not used",
+            "entry_predicted_edge_bps": "baseline frozen ENTRY ONNX output selected by side",
-            "entry_direction_prob": "not used",
+            "entry_direction_prob": "baseline frozen DIRECTION ONNX output selected by side",
+            "add_count": "synthetic first-position diagnostic, fixed to 0",
+            "minutes_since_last_add": "synthetic first-position diagnostic, fixed to 9999",
         },
     }
 
@@ -385,10 +556,54 @@ def _state_feature_schema() -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
         {"name": "mae_since_entry_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "low/high since entry", "leakage_check": "uses only entry..current low/high"},
         {"name": "distance_to_stop_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "price plan and current close", "leakage_check": "uses fixed plan and current price"},
         {"name": "distance_to_target_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "price plan and current close", "leakage_check": "uses fixed plan and current price"},
+        {"name": "entry_predicted_edge_bps", "unit": "bps", "source": "baseline frozen ENTRY ONNX", "leakage_check": "baseline model is fixed before this experiment"},
+        {"name": "entry_direction_prob", "unit": "probability", "source": "baseline frozen DIRECTION ONNX", "leakage_check": "baseline model is fixed before this experiment"},
+        {"name": "add_count", "unit": "count", "source": "synthetic position state", "leakage_check": "known at current position time"},
+        {"name": "minutes_since_last_add", "unit": "minute", "source": "synthetic position state", "leakage_check": "known at current position time"},
     ]
 
 
-def _report(args: Any, baseline_root: Path, manifest: dict[str, Any], results: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
+def _verdict(results: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    reasons: list[str] = []
+    passed_checks: list[str] = []
+    for side in ("long", "short"):
+        plus = results[f"{side}_market_plus_state"]
+        base = results[f"{side}_market_only"]
+        if not plus.get("regressor_converged"):
+            reasons.append(f"{side} market_plus_state regressor did not converge")
+        for split_id in (VALIDATION_LOCKED_SPLIT, LATEST_STRESS_SPLIT):
+            plus_metric = plus.get(split_id, {})
+            base_metric = base.get(split_id, {})
+            plus_auc = plus_metric.get("continue_auc")
+            base_auc = base_metric.get("continue_auc")
+            plus_mae = plus_metric.get("edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio")
+            base_mae = base_metric.get("edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio")
+            if plus_auc is None or plus_auc < 0.60:
+                reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} continue_auc below 0.60: {plus_auc}")
+            elif base_auc is not None and plus_auc <= base_auc:
+                reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} continue_auc not better than market_only: {plus_auc} <= {base_auc}")
+            else:
+                passed_checks.append(f"{side} {split_id} continue_auc")
+            if plus_mae is None or plus_mae > 0.97:
+                reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio above 0.97: {plus_mae}")
+            elif base_mae is not None and plus_mae >= base_mae:
+                reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio not better than market_only: {plus_mae} >= {base_mae}")
+            else:
+                passed_checks.append(f"{side} {split_id} edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio")
+    return {
+        "status": "PASS_TO_FORMAL_CHAIN" if not reasons else "NOT_READY_FOR_FORMAL_CHAIN",
+        "acceptance_rule": {
+            "validation_and_latest_auc_min": 0.60,
+            "validation_and_latest_edge_mae_vs_constant_max": 0.97,
+            "must_beat_market_only": True,
+            "regressor_must_converge": True,
+        },
+        "passed_checks": passed_checks,
+        "reasons": reasons,
+    }
+
+
+def _report(args: Any, baseline_root: Path, manifest: dict[str, Any], results: dict[str, Any], verdict: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
     baseline = read_json(baseline_root / "model" / "model_train_manifest.json")
     continue_metrics = baseline["CONTINUE"]["metrics"]
     lines = [
@@ -398,6 +613,11 @@ def _report(args: Any, baseline_root: Path, manifest: dict[str, Any], results: d
         f"- baseline_run_id: `{args.baseline_run_id}`",
         f"- row_count: `{manifest['row_count']}`",
         f"- ages_minutes: `{manifest['ages_minutes']}`",
+        f"- regressor_kind: `{manifest['regressor_kind']}`",
+        f"- huber_max_iter: `{manifest['huber_max_iter']}`",
+        f"- regression_target_clip_bps: `{manifest['regression_target_clip_bps']}`",
+        f"- continue_horizon_minutes: `{manifest['continue_horizon_minutes']}`",
+        f"- min_continue_edge_bps: `{manifest['min_continue_edge_bps']}`",
         "",
         "## Baseline run-10 Continue",
         "",
@@ -427,6 +647,17 @@ def _report(args: Any, baseline_root: Path, manifest: dict[str, Any], results: d
             "",
             "状态特征只有在 `market_plus_state` 同时好过 `market_only`，并且 validation_locked / latest_stress 没有反向变差时，才进入正式链路。",
             "",
+            "## Verdict",
+            "",
+            f"- status: `{verdict['status']}`",
+            f"- reasons: `{len(verdict['reasons'])}`",
+            "",
         ]
     )
+    for reason in verdict["reasons"]:
+        lines.append(f"- {reason}")
+    if verdict["passed_checks"]:
+        lines.extend(["", "## Passed Checks", ""])
+        for item in verdict["passed_checks"]:
+            lines.append(f"- {item}")
     return "\n".join(lines)