Load trader V4 artifacts from manifests

README.md

@@ -1,65 +1,72 @@
 # quant-trader-service
 
-Clean P0 rebuild of the Trader-style strategy service.
+Trader V4 P0 decision service.
 
 ## Scope
 
-This implementation follows the desktop design documents in
-`/Users/zach/Desktop/app/trader`:
+The service follows the V4 Trader documents under `/Users/zach/Desktop/app/trader`.
+P0 only allows `REPLAY_SIM` and `SHADOW`; `PAPER`, `REAL`, real fills, and old
+strategy-service contracts are rejected.
 
-- `00-操盘手Trader新策略服务概要设计-20260622.md`
-- `03-Trader服务详细设计说明书-20260623.md`
+## Implemented Surface
 
-P0 keeps the service in replay/shadow preparation mode:
+- Spring Boot service under `com.quantai.trader`
+- strict P0 runtime guard for run mode, execution mode, and trading switch
+- JSON artifact loader for model bundle manifest, PM config manifest, and model output policy
+- five-model output contract: Direction, Entry, Continue, Exit, Risk
+- dynamic PM sizing with side-aware stop/target price calculation
+- Risk Gate for hard blockers and forced close decisions
+- JDBC persistence for run, cycle, model output, PM decision, risk decision, action, evidence, and outbox
+- Flyway V1 schema for the V4 P0 tables
+- health, replay-cycle, and feedback endpoints
+- JaCoCo line coverage gate at 90%
 
-- no real trading
-- no old V3 `latest/promoted` path
-- no `SCALE_IN` action surface
-- no real App feedback by default
-- no model training that can control live size
+## Local Database
 
-## Implemented P0 Surface
+Default configuration:
 
-- Spring Boot P0 service under `com.quantai.trader`
-- Playbook YAML loading, validation, normalized JSON, SHA-256 definition hash
-- MySQL 8 Flyway DDL for the P0 trader tables
-- Core domain records for cycles, actions, entry plans, risk, evidence, feedback, samples, and reports
-- State-machine guardrails for initial entry, planned legs, and management actions
-- Dynamic position sizing from signal, execution quality, and risk scores
-- Risk gate that records every allow/block decision
-- Evidence appender and proxy-only training sample exporter
-- Async replay-run registry and report contract
-- MyBatis-Plus repositories aligned with `quant-app-server`
-- Deterministic JSONL replay fixtures for accepted, rejected, blocked, and hard-fail paths
-- Feedback endpoint that returns `TRADER_FEEDBACK_DISABLED` unless explicitly enabled
-- Focused unit and MVC tests
+```text
+jdbc:mysql://127.0.0.1:3306/quant_trader
+username: quant_trader
+password: quant_trader
+```
+
+Override with `TRADER_DB_URL`, `TRADER_DB_USERNAME`, and `TRADER_DB_PASSWORD`.
+
+## Artifact Root
+
+Default artifact root:
+
+```text
+/Users/zach/Desktop/quant-strategy-training-data/trader-v4/artifact_bundle
+```
+
+Required files:
+
+```text
+manifests/model_bundle_manifest.json
+manifests/position_manager_manifest.json
+model_output_policy.json
+```
+
+The loader requires the configured model/calibration/PM version triple to match
+the manifests, all five model families to be present, and the model/PM manifests
+to be `ACTIVE`.
 
 ## Commands
 
 ```bash
-mvn test
-mvn spring-boot:run
+mvn clean test
+TRADER_DB_USERNAME=quant_trader TRADER_DB_PASSWORD=quant_trader SERVER_PORT=18080 mvn spring-boot:run
 ```
 
-The service uses MySQL through MyBatis-Plus. Configure the database with
-`TRADER_DB_URL`, `TRADER_DB_USERNAME`, and `TRADER_DB_PASSWORD` when the local
-defaults are not available.
-
-Replay acceptance fixtures live under `src/test/resources/replay-fixtures`.
-They are deterministic P0 contract samples, not a profitability backtest corpus.
-
 ## HTTP
 
 ```text
 GET  /api/trader/health
-GET  /api/trader/playbooks
-GET  /api/trader/playbooks/{playbookId}
-POST /api/trader/replay/runs
-GET  /api/trader/replay/runs/{runId}
-POST /api/trader/replay/runs/{runId}/cancel
-GET  /api/trader/replay/runs/{runId}/report
+POST /api/trader/replay/cycles
 POST /api/trader/feedback
 ```
 
-Remark: `/api/trader/feedback` is intentionally disabled in P0 unless
-`trader.integration.http-feedback-enabled=true`.
+`/api/trader/feedback` is disabled by default in P0 and still rejects
+`PAPER_APP`, `REAL_APP`, and any real fill when explicitly enabled for tests.

src/main/java/com/quantai/trader/artifact/TraderArtifactBundle.java

@@ -10,12 +10,14 @@ public record TraderArtifactBundle(
         String pmConfigVersion,
         String bundleHashSha256,
         Set<String> providedModels,
-        TraderPmConfig pmConfig
+        TraderPmConfig pmConfig,
+        TraderArtifactModelPolicy modelPolicy
 ) {
     public TraderArtifactBundle {
         if (providedModels == null || !providedModels.containsAll(Set.of("DIRECTION", "ENTRY", "CONTINUE", "EXIT", "RISK"))) {
             throw new IllegalArgumentException("artifact bundle must provide all five V4 models");
         }
         pmConfig = java.util.Objects.requireNonNull(pmConfig, "pmConfig is required");
+        modelPolicy = java.util.Objects.requireNonNull(modelPolicy, "modelPolicy is required");
     }
 }

src/main/java/com/quantai/trader/artifact/TraderArtifactLoader.java

@@ -1,71 +1,186 @@
 package com.quantai.trader.artifact;
 
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.JsonNode;
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.ObjectMapper;
 import com.quantai.trader.config.TraderProperties;
 import com.quantai.trader.domain.TraderException;
 import com.quantai.trader.domain.TraderPmConfig;
+import com.quantai.trader.enums.TraderRunMode;
 import com.quantai.trader.enums.TraderErrorCode;
 import org.slf4j.Logger;
 import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
 import org.springframework.stereotype.Component;
 
-import java.math.BigDecimal;
+import java.io.IOException;
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
 import java.util.Set;
+import java.util.stream.Collectors;
+import java.util.stream.StreamSupport;
 
 @Component
 public class TraderArtifactLoader {
     private static final Logger log = LoggerFactory.getLogger(TraderArtifactLoader.class);
+    private static final Set<String> REQUIRED_MODELS = Set.of("DIRECTION", "ENTRY", "CONTINUE", "EXIT", "RISK");
 
     private final TraderProperties properties;
+    private final ObjectMapper objectMapper;
 
-    public TraderArtifactLoader(TraderProperties properties) {
+    public TraderArtifactLoader(TraderProperties properties, ObjectMapper objectMapper) {
         this.properties = properties;
+        this.objectMapper = objectMapper;
     }
 
     public TraderArtifactBundle loadActiveBundle() {
         TraderProperties.Artifact artifact = properties.artifact();
-        if (artifact.modelBundleVersion().isBlank()
-                || artifact.calibrationBundleVersion().isBlank()
-                || artifact.pmConfigVersion().isBlank()) {
-            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
-                    "model/calibration/pm version is required");
-        }
-        TraderArtifactBundle bundle = deterministicP0Bundle(artifact);
+        Path root = Path.of(artifact.artifactRoot());
+        TraderModelBundleManifest modelManifest = readModelBundleManifest(root.resolve("manifests/model_bundle_manifest.json"));
+        TraderPmConfigManifest pmManifest = readPmConfigManifest(root.resolve("manifests/position_manager_manifest.json"));
+        TraderArtifactModelPolicy modelPolicy = readJson(root.resolve("model_output_policy.json"), TraderArtifactModelPolicy.class);
+        validateVersions(artifact, modelManifest, pmManifest);
+        validateModelManifest(modelManifest);
+        validatePmManifest(pmManifest, properties.runMode());
+        TraderArtifactBundle bundle = new TraderArtifactBundle(
+                modelManifest.modelBundleVersion(),
+                modelManifest.calibrationBundleVersion(),
+                pmManifest.pmConfigVersion(),
+                modelManifest.bundleHashSha256(),
+                modelManifest.providedModels(),
+                pmManifest.config(),
+                modelPolicy);
         log.info("event=trader.artifact.loaded modelBundleVersion={} calibrationBundleVersion={} pmConfigVersion={} providedModels={}",
                 bundle.modelBundleVersion(), bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), bundle.pmConfigVersion(), bundle.providedModels());
         return bundle;
     }
 
-    private TraderArtifactBundle deterministicP0Bundle(TraderProperties.Artifact artifact) {
-        TraderPmConfig pmConfig = new TraderPmConfig(
-                artifact.pmConfigVersion(),
-                new TraderPmConfig.OpenRuleConfig(
-                        new BigDecimal("0.58"), new BigDecimal("0.58"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.55"), new BigDecimal("0.55"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.45"), new BigDecimal("1.0"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.03"), new BigDecimal("0.10"), new BigDecimal("0.80")),
-                new TraderPmConfig.AddRuleConfig(
-                        new BigDecimal("0.60"), new BigDecimal("0.60"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.58"), new BigDecimal("0.55"), new BigDecimal("0.45"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.45"), new BigDecimal("0.50"),
-                        new BigDecimal("1.0"), BigDecimal.ZERO, new BigDecimal("0.10"),
-                        new BigDecimal("500"), 3, 5),
-                new TraderPmConfig.ExitRuleConfig(
-                        new BigDecimal("0.70"), new BigDecimal("0.70"), new BigDecimal("0.70"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.25"), new BigDecimal("0.62"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.35"), new BigDecimal("0.70"),
-                        new BigDecimal("5.0"), new BigDecimal("80")),
-                new TraderPmConfig.SizingConfig(
-                        new BigDecimal("0.80"), new BigDecimal("0.05"), BigDecimal.ONE,
-                        new BigDecimal("0.02"), new BigDecimal("0.25"), BigDecimal.ONE,
-                        new BigDecimal("1.0"), new BigDecimal("80"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.20"), new BigDecimal("0.50"), new BigDecimal("500"))
-        );
-        return new TraderArtifactBundle(
-                artifact.modelBundleVersion(),
-                artifact.calibrationBundleVersion(),
-                artifact.pmConfigVersion(),
-                "deterministic-p0-fixture",
-                Set.of("DIRECTION", "ENTRY", "CONTINUE", "EXIT", "RISK"),
-                pmConfig);
+    private TraderModelBundleManifest readModelBundleManifest(Path path) {
+        JsonNode root = readJsonNode(path);
+        return new TraderModelBundleManifest(
+                requiredText(root, "model_bundle_version", path),
+                requiredText(root, "calibration_bundle_version", path),
+                requiredText(root, "feature_version", path),
+                requiredText(root, "label_version", path),
+                requiredText(root, "split_version", path),
+                textSet(root, "required_models_json", path),
+                textSet(root, "provided_models_json", path),
+                textSet(root, "missing_models_json", path),
+                requiredText(root, "bundle_hash_sha256", path),
+                root.path("complete").asBoolean(false),
+                requiredText(root, "status", path));
+    }
+
+    private TraderPmConfigManifest readPmConfigManifest(Path path) {
+        JsonNode root = readJsonNode(path);
+        return new TraderPmConfigManifest(
+                requiredText(root, "pm_config_version", path),
+                requiredText(root, "model_bundle_version", path),
+                requiredText(root, "calibration_bundle_version", path),
+                enumSet(root, "allowed_run_modes_json", TraderRunMode.class, path),
+                convert(root.path("config_json"), TraderPmConfig.class, path),
+                requiredText(root, "config_hash_sha256", path),
+                requiredText(root, "status", path));
+    }
+
+    private void validateVersions(TraderProperties.Artifact expected, TraderModelBundleManifest model, TraderPmConfigManifest pm) {
+        if (!expected.modelBundleVersion().equals(model.modelBundleVersion())
+                || !expected.calibrationBundleVersion().equals(model.calibrationBundleVersion())
+                || !expected.pmConfigVersion().equals(pm.pmConfigVersion())) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "artifact version triple does not match configured model/calibration/pm versions");
+        }
+        if (!model.modelBundleVersion().equals(pm.modelBundleVersion())
+                || !model.calibrationBundleVersion().equals(pm.calibrationBundleVersion())) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_CALIBRATION_MISMATCH,
+                    "model and pm manifests reference different model/calibration versions");
+        }
+    }
+
+    private void validateModelManifest(TraderModelBundleManifest manifest) {
+        if (!manifest.complete() || !"ACTIVE".equals(manifest.status())) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "model bundle manifest must be complete and ACTIVE");
+        }
+        if (!manifest.requiredModels().containsAll(REQUIRED_MODELS)
+                || !manifest.providedModels().containsAll(REQUIRED_MODELS)
+                || !manifest.missingModels().isEmpty()) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "model bundle must provide all five V4 models with no missing model");
+        }
+    }
+
+    private void validatePmManifest(TraderPmConfigManifest manifest, TraderRunMode runMode) {
+        if (!"ACTIVE".equals(manifest.status())) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_PM_CONFIG_MISMATCH,
+                    "pm config manifest must be ACTIVE");
+        }
+        if (!manifest.allowedRunModes().contains(runMode)) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_PM_CONFIG_MISMATCH,
+                    "pm config manifest does not allow current run mode");
+        }
+    }
+
+    private JsonNode readJsonNode(Path path) {
+        if (!Files.isRegularFile(path)) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "artifact file is missing: " + path);
+        }
+        try {
+            return objectMapper.readTree(path.toFile());
+        } catch (IOException exception) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "artifact file cannot be read: " + path);
+        }
+    }
+
+    private <T> T readJson(Path path, Class<T> type) {
+        if (!Files.isRegularFile(path)) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "artifact file is missing: " + path);
+        }
+        try {
+            return objectMapper.readValue(path.toFile(), type);
+        } catch (IOException exception) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "artifact file cannot be read: " + path);
+        }
+    }
+
+    private <T> T convert(JsonNode node, Class<T> type, Path path) {
+        if (node == null || node.isMissingNode() || node.isNull()) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "artifact field is missing: " + path + "#config_json");
+        }
+        try {
+            return objectMapper.treeToValue(node, type);
+        } catch (IOException exception) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "artifact field cannot be parsed: " + path + "#config_json");
+        }
+    }
+
+    private String requiredText(JsonNode node, String field, Path path) {
+        String value = node.path(field).asText("");
+        if (value.isBlank()) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "artifact field is required: " + path + "#" + field);
+        }
+        return value;
+    }
+
+    private Set<String> textSet(JsonNode node, String field, Path path) {
+        JsonNode array = node.path(field);
+        if (!array.isArray()) {
+            throw new TraderException(TraderErrorCode.TRADER_MODEL_ARTIFACT_MISSING,
+                    "artifact field must be array: " + path + "#" + field);
+        }
+        return StreamSupport.stream(array.spliterator(), false)
+                .map(JsonNode::asText)
+                .collect(Collectors.toUnmodifiableSet());
+    }
+
+    private <E extends Enum<E>> Set<E> enumSet(JsonNode node, String field, Class<E> type, Path path) {
+        return textSet(node, field, path).stream()
+                .map(value -> Enum.valueOf(type, value))
+                .collect(Collectors.toUnmodifiableSet());
     }
 }

src/main/java/com/quantai/trader/artifact/TraderArtifactModelPolicy.java

@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+package com.quantai.trader.artifact;
+
+import java.math.BigDecimal;
+
+public record TraderArtifactModelPolicy(
+        DirectionPolicy direction,
+        EntryPolicy entry,
+        ContinuePolicy continuation,
+        ExitPolicy exit,
+        RiskPolicy risk,
+        BigDecimal uncertainty,
+        BigDecimal oodScore
+) {
+    public record DirectionPolicy(
+            BigDecimal longProbWhenMarkGteIndex,
+            BigDecimal longProbWhenMarkLtIndex,
+            BigDecimal neutralProb,
+            BigDecimal expectedReturnBps,
+            int horizonMinutes,
+            String modelVersion
+    ) {
+    }
+
+    public record EntryPolicy(
+            BigDecimal longEntryProb,
+            BigDecimal shortEntryProb,
+            BigDecimal entryQualityScore,
+            BigDecimal expectedEdgeBps,
+            String pricePlanId,
+            String pricePlanConfigHash,
+            BigDecimal stopDistanceBps,
+            BigDecimal targetDistanceBps,
+            int maxHoldMinutes,
+            BigDecimal costBps,
+            String modelVersion
+    ) {
+    }
+
+    public record ContinuePolicy(
+            BigDecimal longContinueProb,
+            BigDecimal shortContinueProb,
+            BigDecimal trendPersistenceProb,
+            BigDecimal holdEdgeBps,
+            BigDecimal continueVsExitEdgeBps,
+            String modelVersion
+    ) {
+    }
+
+    public record ExitPolicy(
+            BigDecimal longExitProb,
+            BigDecimal shortExitProb,
+            BigDecimal profitGivebackProb,
+            BigDecimal reversalProb,
+            BigDecimal stopRiskProb,
+            BigDecimal stagnationProb,
+            BigDecimal expectedGivebackBps,
+            String modelVersion
+    ) {
+    }
+
+    public record RiskPolicy(
+            BigDecimal marketRiskProb,
+            BigDecimal positionRiskProb,
+            BigDecimal marketRiskSeverityBps,
+            BigDecimal positionRiskSeverityBps,
+            BigDecimal drawdownProb,
+            BigDecimal expectedShortfallBps,
+            BigDecimal volatilityExpansionProb,
+            BigDecimal spikeProb,
+            BigDecimal liquidityRiskProb,
+            BigDecimal liquidityCapacityRatioWhenReady,
+            BigDecimal liquidityCapacityRatioWhenNotReady,
+            String modelVersion
+    ) {
+    }
+}

src/main/java/com/quantai/trader/artifact/TraderModelBundleManifest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+package com.quantai.trader.artifact;
+
+import java.util.Set;
+
+public record TraderModelBundleManifest(
+        String modelBundleVersion,
+        String calibrationBundleVersion,
+        String featureVersion,
+        String labelVersion,
+        String splitVersion,
+        Set<String> requiredModels,
+        Set<String> providedModels,
+        Set<String> missingModels,
+        String bundleHashSha256,
+        boolean complete,
+        String status
+) {
+}

src/main/java/com/quantai/trader/artifact/TraderPmConfigManifest.java

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+package com.quantai.trader.artifact;
+
+import com.quantai.trader.domain.TraderPmConfig;
+import com.quantai.trader.enums.TraderRunMode;
+
+import java.util.Set;
+
+public record TraderPmConfigManifest(
+        String pmConfigVersion,
+        String modelBundleVersion,
+        String calibrationBundleVersion,
+        Set<TraderRunMode> allowedRunModes,
+        TraderPmConfig config,
+        String configHashSha256,
+        String status
+) {
+}

src/main/java/com/quantai/trader/model/ArtifactTraderModelService.java

@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+package com.quantai.trader.model;
+
+import com.quantai.trader.artifact.TraderArtifactBundle;
+import com.quantai.trader.artifact.TraderArtifactModelPolicy;
+import com.quantai.trader.domain.*;
+import org.springframework.stereotype.Service;
+
+import java.math.BigDecimal;
+import java.util.Map;
+
+@Service
+public class ArtifactTraderModelService implements TraderModelService {
+    @Override
+    public TraderModelOutput evaluate(TraderMarketSnapshot snapshot, TraderArtifactBundle bundle) {
+        TraderArtifactModelPolicy policy = bundle.modelPolicy();
+        DirectionOutput direction = direction(snapshot, bundle, policy.direction());
+        return new TraderModelOutput(
+                "model_output_" + snapshot.cycleId(),
+                snapshot.runId(),
+                snapshot.cycleId(),
+                bundle.modelBundleVersion(),
+                bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(),
+                direction,
+                entry(bundle, policy.entry()),
+                continuation(bundle, policy.continuation()),
+                exit(bundle, policy.exit()),
+                risk(snapshot, bundle, policy.risk()),
+                policy.uncertainty(),
+                policy.oodScore(),
+                Map.of("artifactPolicy", bundle.bundleHashSha256()));
+    }
+
+    private DirectionOutput direction(TraderMarketSnapshot snapshot, TraderArtifactBundle bundle, TraderArtifactModelPolicy.DirectionPolicy policy) {
+        BigDecimal longProb = snapshot.markPrice().compareTo(snapshot.indexPrice()) >= 0
+                ? policy.longProbWhenMarkGteIndex()
+                : policy.longProbWhenMarkLtIndex();
+        BigDecimal shortProb = BigDecimal.ONE.subtract(longProb).subtract(policy.neutralProb()).max(BigDecimal.ZERO);
+        BigDecimal neutralProb = BigDecimal.ONE.subtract(longProb).subtract(shortProb);
+        return new DirectionOutput(longProb, shortProb, neutralProb, longProb.max(shortProb),
+                longProb.subtract(shortProb).abs(), policy.expectedReturnBps(), policy.horizonMinutes(),
+                policy.modelVersion(), bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of("source", "artifact_policy"));
+    }
+
+    private EntryOutput entry(TraderArtifactBundle bundle, TraderArtifactModelPolicy.EntryPolicy policy) {
+        return new EntryOutput(policy.longEntryProb(), policy.shortEntryProb(), policy.entryQualityScore(),
+                policy.expectedEdgeBps(), policy.pricePlanId(), policy.pricePlanConfigHash(),
+                policy.stopDistanceBps(), policy.targetDistanceBps(), policy.maxHoldMinutes(), policy.costBps(),
+                policy.modelVersion(), bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of("source", "artifact_policy"));
+    }
+
+    private ContinueOutput continuation(TraderArtifactBundle bundle, TraderArtifactModelPolicy.ContinuePolicy policy) {
+        return new ContinueOutput(policy.longContinueProb(), policy.shortContinueProb(), policy.trendPersistenceProb(),
+                policy.holdEdgeBps(), policy.continueVsExitEdgeBps(),
+                policy.modelVersion(), bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of("source", "artifact_policy"));
+    }
+
+    private ExitOutput exit(TraderArtifactBundle bundle, TraderArtifactModelPolicy.ExitPolicy policy) {
+        return new ExitOutput(policy.longExitProb(), policy.shortExitProb(), policy.profitGivebackProb(),
+                policy.reversalProb(), policy.stopRiskProb(), policy.stagnationProb(), policy.expectedGivebackBps(),
+                policy.modelVersion(), bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of("source", "artifact_policy"));
+    }
+
+    private RiskOutput risk(TraderMarketSnapshot snapshot, TraderArtifactBundle bundle, TraderArtifactModelPolicy.RiskPolicy policy) {
+        BigDecimal liquidityCapacity = snapshot.dataReady()
+                ? policy.liquidityCapacityRatioWhenReady()
+                : policy.liquidityCapacityRatioWhenNotReady();
+        return new RiskOutput(policy.marketRiskProb(), policy.positionRiskProb(), policy.marketRiskSeverityBps(),
+                policy.positionRiskSeverityBps(), policy.drawdownProb(), policy.expectedShortfallBps(),
+                policy.volatilityExpansionProb(), policy.spikeProb(), policy.liquidityRiskProb(), liquidityCapacity,
+                policy.modelVersion(), bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of("source", "artifact_policy"));
+    }
+}

src/main/java/com/quantai/trader/model/DeterministicTraderModelService.java

@@ -1,50 +0,0 @@
-package com.quantai.trader.model;
-
-import com.quantai.trader.artifact.TraderArtifactBundle;
-import com.quantai.trader.domain.*;
-import org.springframework.stereotype.Service;
-
-import java.math.BigDecimal;
-import java.util.Map;
-
-@Service
-public class DeterministicTraderModelService implements TraderModelService {
-    @Override
-    public TraderModelOutput evaluate(TraderMarketSnapshot snapshot, TraderArtifactBundle bundle) {
-        BigDecimal directionalBias = snapshot.markPrice().compareTo(snapshot.indexPrice()) >= 0
-                ? new BigDecimal("0.62")
-                : new BigDecimal("0.32");
-        BigDecimal shortBias = BigDecimal.ONE.subtract(directionalBias).subtract(new BigDecimal("0.10"));
-        if (shortBias.compareTo(BigDecimal.ZERO) < 0) {
-            shortBias = BigDecimal.ZERO;
-        }
-        BigDecimal neutral = BigDecimal.ONE.subtract(directionalBias).subtract(shortBias);
-        EntryOutput entry = new EntryOutput(
-                new BigDecimal("0.63"), new BigDecimal("0.42"), new BigDecimal("0.64"),
-                new BigDecimal("12.0"), "p0-plan-atr-2r", "p0-price-plan-hash",
-                new BigDecimal("35"), new BigDecimal("70"), 45, new BigDecimal("4.0"),
-                "entry-p0", bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of("source", "deterministic_fixture"));
-        return new TraderModelOutput(
-                "model_output_" + snapshot.cycleId(),
-                snapshot.runId(),
-                snapshot.cycleId(),
-                bundle.modelBundleVersion(),
-                bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(),
-                new DirectionOutput(directionalBias, shortBias, neutral, directionalBias, directionalBias.subtract(shortBias).abs(),
-                        new BigDecimal("8.0"), 45, "direction-p0", bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of()),
-                entry,
-                new ContinueOutput(new BigDecimal("0.61"), new BigDecimal("0.39"), new BigDecimal("0.58"),
-                        new BigDecimal("5.0"), new BigDecimal("3.0"), "continue-p0", bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of()),
-                new ExitOutput(new BigDecimal("0.24"), new BigDecimal("0.48"), new BigDecimal("0.20"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.25"), new BigDecimal("0.22"), new BigDecimal("0.20"),
-                        new BigDecimal("10"), "exit-p0", bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of()),
-                new RiskOutput(new BigDecimal("0.20"), new BigDecimal("0.18"),
-                        new BigDecimal("20"), new BigDecimal("18"), new BigDecimal("0.15"),
-                        new BigDecimal("20"), new BigDecimal("0.20"), new BigDecimal("0.10"),
-                        new BigDecimal("0.12"), snapshot.depthNotional5Bps().compareTo(BigDecimal.ZERO) > 0 ? new BigDecimal("1.0") : BigDecimal.ZERO,
-                        "risk-p0", bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), Map.of()),
-                new BigDecimal("0.10"),
-                new BigDecimal("0.05"),
-                Map.of("source", "deterministic_p0_fixture"));
-    }
-}

src/test/java/com/quantai/trader/TestFixtures.java

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 package com.quantai.trader;
 
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.ObjectMapper;
+import com.fasterxml.jackson.databind.json.JsonMapper;
 import com.quantai.trader.config.TraderProperties;
 import com.quantai.trader.domain.*;
 import com.quantai.trader.enums.PositionSide;
@@ -9,6 +11,9 @@ import com.quantai.trader.enums.TraderRunMode;
 import com.quantai.trader.risk.RiskLimits;
 
 import java.math.BigDecimal;
+import java.io.IOException;
+import java.nio.file.Files;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
 import java.time.Instant;
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Map;
@@ -27,6 +32,26 @@ public final class TestFixtures {
         return properties(TraderRunMode.SHADOW, TraderExecutionMode.SHADOW, false, false);
     }
 
+    public static ObjectMapper objectMapper() {
+        return JsonMapper.builder().findAndAddModules().build();
+    }
+
+    public static TraderProperties propertiesWithArtifactRoot(Path artifactRoot) {
+        TraderProperties base = properties();
+        return new TraderProperties(
+                base.serviceName(),
+                base.runMode(),
+                base.symbol(),
+                new TraderProperties.Artifact("trader-v4-btc-p0", "cal-v4-btc-p0", "pm-v4-btc-p0", artifactRoot.toString()),
+                base.feedback(),
+                base.execution(),
+                base.runtime(),
+                base.outbox(),
+                base.release(),
+                base.risk(),
+                base.positionManager());
+    }
+
     public static TraderProperties properties(TraderRunMode runMode, TraderExecutionMode executionMode,
                                               boolean tradingEnabled, boolean feedbackHttpEnabled) {
         return new TraderProperties(
@@ -190,4 +215,145 @@ public final class TestFixtures {
     public static RiskLimits riskLimits() {
         return new RiskLimits(bd("200"), BigDecimal.ONE, bd("500"), 3, 1500, false, false);
     }
+
+    public static void writeArtifactBundle(Path artifactRoot) throws IOException {
+        Files.createDirectories(artifactRoot.resolve("manifests"));
+        Files.writeString(artifactRoot.resolve("manifests/model_bundle_manifest.json"), """
+                {
+                  "model_bundle_version": "trader-v4-btc-p0",
+                  "calibration_bundle_version": "cal-v4-btc-p0",
+                  "feature_version": "feature-v4-p0",
+                  "label_version": "label-v4-p0",
+                  "split_version": "split-v4-p0",
+                  "required_models_json": ["DIRECTION", "ENTRY", "CONTINUE", "EXIT", "RISK"],
+                  "provided_models_json": ["DIRECTION", "ENTRY", "CONTINUE", "EXIT", "RISK"],
+                  "missing_models_json": [],
+                  "bundle_hash_sha256": "00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000a1",
+                  "complete": true,
+                  "status": "ACTIVE"
+                }
+                """);
+        Files.writeString(artifactRoot.resolve("manifests/position_manager_manifest.json"), """
+                {
+                  "pm_config_version": "pm-v4-btc-p0",
+                  "model_bundle_version": "trader-v4-btc-p0",
+                  "calibration_bundle_version": "cal-v4-btc-p0",
+                  "allowed_run_modes_json": ["REPLAY_SIM", "SHADOW"],
+                  "config_hash_sha256": "00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000b1",
+                  "status": "ACTIVE",
+                  "config_json": {
+                    "pmConfigVersion": "pm-v4-btc-p0",
+                    "open": {
+                      "longOpenProb": 0.58,
+                      "shortOpenProb": 0.58,
+                      "minLongEntryProb": 0.55,
+                      "minShortEntryProb": 0.55,
+                      "maxMarketRiskProb": 0.45,
+                      "minExpectedEdgeBps": 1.0,
+                      "minDirectionMargin": 0.03,
+                      "minLiquidityCapacityRatio": 0.10,
+                      "maxOodScore": 0.80
+                    },
+                    "add": {
+                      "minLongProb": 0.60,
+                      "minShortProb": 0.60,
+                      "minContinueProb": 0.58,
+                      "minEntryProb": 0.55,
+                      "maxExitProb": 0.45,
+                      "maxMarketRiskProb": 0.45,
+                      "maxPositionRiskProb": 0.50,
+                      "minExpectedEdgeBps": 1.0,
+                      "minContinueVsExitEdgeBps": 0,
+                      "minLiquidityCapacityRatio": 0.10,
+                      "minPostTradeLiquidationBufferBps": 500,
+                      "maxAddCount": 3,
+                      "cooldownMinutes": 5
+                    },
+                    "exit": {
+                      "closeExitProb": 0.70,
+                      "closePositionRiskProb": 0.70,
+                      "closeMarketRiskProb": 0.70,
+                      "closeContinueMax": 0.25,
+                      "reduceGivebackProb": 0.62,
+                      "reduceContinueMin": 0.35,
+                      "reduceContinueMax": 0.70,
+                      "minProfitForReduceBps": 5.0,
+                      "maxExpectedShortfallBps": 80
+                    },
+                    "sizing": {
+                      "baseRatio": 0.80,
+                      "minInitialRatio": 0.05,
+                      "maxSingleLegRatio": 1.0,
+                      "minAddRatio": 0.02,
+                      "maxAddRatio": 0.25,
+                      "maxTotalPositionRatio": 1.0,
+                      "minEdgeBps": 1.0,
+                      "maxLossPerTradeBps": 80,
+                      "maxLiquidityUsageRatio": 0.20,
+                      "uncertaintyPenaltyMultiplier": 0.50,
+                      "minPostTradeLiquidationBufferBps": 500
+                    }
+                  }
+                }
+                """);
+        Files.writeString(artifactRoot.resolve("model_output_policy.json"), """
+                {
+                  "direction": {
+                    "longProbWhenMarkGteIndex": 0.62,
+                    "longProbWhenMarkLtIndex": 0.32,
+                    "neutralProb": 0.10,
+                    "expectedReturnBps": 8.0,
+                    "horizonMinutes": 45,
+                    "modelVersion": "direction-p0"
+                  },
+                  "entry": {
+                    "longEntryProb": 0.63,
+                    "shortEntryProb": 0.42,
+                    "entryQualityScore": 0.64,
+                    "expectedEdgeBps": 12.0,
+                    "pricePlanId": "p0-plan-atr-2r",
+                    "pricePlanConfigHash": "p0-price-plan-hash",
+                    "stopDistanceBps": 35,
+                    "targetDistanceBps": 70,
+                    "maxHoldMinutes": 45,
+                    "costBps": 4.0,
+                    "modelVersion": "entry-p0"
+                  },
+                  "continuation": {
+                    "longContinueProb": 0.61,
+                    "shortContinueProb": 0.39,
+                    "trendPersistenceProb": 0.58,
+                    "holdEdgeBps": 5.0,
+                    "continueVsExitEdgeBps": 3.0,
+                    "modelVersion": "continue-p0"
+                  },
+                  "exit": {
+                    "longExitProb": 0.24,
+                    "shortExitProb": 0.48,
+                    "profitGivebackProb": 0.20,
+                    "reversalProb": 0.25,
+                    "stopRiskProb": 0.22,
+                    "stagnationProb": 0.20,
+                    "expectedGivebackBps": 10,
+                    "modelVersion": "exit-p0"
+                  },
+                  "risk": {
+                    "marketRiskProb": 0.20,
+                    "positionRiskProb": 0.18,
+                    "marketRiskSeverityBps": 20,
+                    "positionRiskSeverityBps": 18,
+                    "drawdownProb": 0.15,
+                    "expectedShortfallBps": 20,
+                    "volatilityExpansionProb": 0.20,
+                    "spikeProb": 0.10,
+                    "liquidityRiskProb": 0.12,
+                    "liquidityCapacityRatioWhenReady": 1.0,
+                    "liquidityCapacityRatioWhenNotReady": 0,
+                    "modelVersion": "risk-p0"
+                  },
+                  "uncertainty": 0.10,
+                  "oodScore": 0.05
+                }
+                """);
+    }
 }

src/test/java/com/quantai/trader/artifact/TraderArtifactLoaderTest.java

@@ -2,20 +2,29 @@ package com.quantai.trader.artifact;
 
 import com.quantai.trader.config.TraderProperties;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
 
+import java.io.IOException;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
 import java.util.Set;
 
-import static com.quantai.trader.TestFixtures.properties;
+import static com.quantai.trader.TestFixtures.*;
 import static org.assertj.core.api.Assertions.assertThat;
 import static org.assertj.core.api.Assertions.assertThatThrownBy;
 
 class TraderArtifactLoaderTest {
+    @TempDir
+    Path artifactRoot;
+
     @Test
-    void deterministicP0BundleProvidesAllFiveModelFamilies() {
-        TraderArtifactBundle bundle = new TraderArtifactLoader(properties()).loadActiveBundle();
+    void activeArtifactBundleProvidesAllFiveModelFamilies() throws IOException {
+        writeArtifactBundle(artifactRoot);
+
+        TraderArtifactBundle bundle = new TraderArtifactLoader(propertiesWithArtifactRoot(artifactRoot), objectMapper()).loadActiveBundle();
 
         assertThat(bundle.providedModels()).containsExactlyInAnyOrder("DIRECTION", "ENTRY", "CONTINUE", "EXIT", "RISK");
         assertThat(bundle.pmConfig().pmConfigVersion()).isEqualTo("pm-v4-btc-p0");
+        assertThat(bundle.modelPolicy().entry().pricePlanConfigHash()).isEqualTo("p0-price-plan-hash");
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -26,13 +35,21 @@ class TraderArtifactLoaderTest {
     }
 
     @Test
-    void bundleContractRejectsMissingModelFamily() {
-        TraderArtifactBundle bundle = new TraderArtifactLoader(properties()).loadActiveBundle();
+    void bundleContractRejectsMissingModelFamily() throws IOException {
+        writeArtifactBundle(artifactRoot);
+        TraderArtifactBundle bundle = new TraderArtifactLoader(propertiesWithArtifactRoot(artifactRoot), objectMapper()).loadActiveBundle();
 
         assertThatThrownBy(() -> new TraderArtifactBundle(
                 bundle.modelBundleVersion(), bundle.calibrationBundleVersion(), bundle.pmConfigVersion(),
-                bundle.bundleHashSha256(), Set.of("DIRECTION", "ENTRY", "CONTINUE", "RISK"), bundle.pmConfig()))
+                bundle.bundleHashSha256(), Set.of("DIRECTION", "ENTRY", "CONTINUE", "RISK"), bundle.pmConfig(), bundle.modelPolicy()))
                 .isInstanceOf(IllegalArgumentException.class)
                 .hasMessageContaining("all five");
     }
+
+    @Test
+    void rejectsMissingArtifactFiles() {
+        assertThatThrownBy(() -> new TraderArtifactLoader(propertiesWithArtifactRoot(artifactRoot), objectMapper()).loadActiveBundle())
+                .isInstanceOf(com.quantai.trader.domain.TraderException.class)
+                .hasMessageContaining("artifact file is missing");
+    }
 }

src/test/java/com/quantai/trader/replay/TraderP0CycleRunnerTest.java

@@ -5,33 +5,39 @@ import com.quantai.trader.domain.*;
 import com.quantai.trader.enums.TraderActionType;
 import com.quantai.trader.evidence.EvidenceAppender;
 import com.quantai.trader.evidence.TraderEvidenceRepository;
-import com.quantai.trader.model.DeterministicTraderModelService;
+import com.quantai.trader.model.ArtifactTraderModelService;
 import com.quantai.trader.outbox.TraderOutboxEvent;
 import com.quantai.trader.outbox.TraderOutboxRepository;
 import com.quantai.trader.persistence.TraderDecisionTraceWriter;
 import com.quantai.trader.position.TraderPositionManager;
 import com.quantai.trader.risk.TraderRiskGate;
 import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.io.TempDir;
 
 import java.util.ArrayList;
 import java.util.List;
+import java.io.IOException;
 import java.math.BigDecimal;
+import java.nio.file.Path;
 
-import static com.quantai.trader.TestFixtures.T0;
-import static com.quantai.trader.TestFixtures.properties;
+import static com.quantai.trader.TestFixtures.*;
 import static org.assertj.core.api.Assertions.assertThat;
 
 class TraderP0CycleRunnerTest {
+    @TempDir
+    Path artifactRoot;
+
     @Test
-    void runsReplayShadowCycleThroughModelPmRiskActionOutboxAndEvidence() {
+    void runsReplayShadowCycleThroughModelPmRiskActionOutboxAndEvidence() throws IOException {
+        writeArtifactBundle(artifactRoot);
         RecordingEvidenceRepository evidenceRepository = new RecordingEvidenceRepository();
         EvidenceAppender evidenceAppender = new EvidenceAppender(evidenceRepository);
         RecordingTraceWriter traceWriter = new RecordingTraceWriter();
         RecordingOutboxRepository outboxRepository = new RecordingOutboxRepository();
         TraderP0CycleRunner runner = new TraderP0CycleRunner(
-                properties(),
-                new TraderArtifactLoader(properties()),
-                new DeterministicTraderModelService(),
+                propertiesWithArtifactRoot(artifactRoot),
+                new TraderArtifactLoader(propertiesWithArtifactRoot(artifactRoot), objectMapper()),
+                new ArtifactTraderModelService(),
                 new TraderPositionManager(),
                 new TraderRiskGate(),
                 new TraderActionFactory(),
@@ -53,15 +59,16 @@ class TraderP0CycleRunnerTest {
     }
 
     @Test
-    void recordsWaitActionWhenReplaySnapshotHasNoLiquidity() {
+    void recordsWaitActionWhenReplaySnapshotHasNoLiquidity() throws IOException {
+        writeArtifactBundle(artifactRoot);
         RecordingEvidenceRepository evidenceRepository = new RecordingEvidenceRepository();
         EvidenceAppender evidenceAppender = new EvidenceAppender(evidenceRepository);
         RecordingTraceWriter traceWriter = new RecordingTraceWriter();
         RecordingOutboxRepository outboxRepository = new RecordingOutboxRepository();
         TraderP0CycleRunner runner = new TraderP0CycleRunner(
-                properties(),
-                new TraderArtifactLoader(properties()),
-                new DeterministicTraderModelService(),
+                propertiesWithArtifactRoot(artifactRoot),
+                new TraderArtifactLoader(propertiesWithArtifactRoot(artifactRoot), objectMapper()),
+                new ArtifactTraderModelService(),
                 new TraderPositionManager(),
                 new TraderRiskGate(),
                 new TraderActionFactory(),