Tighten state Continue verdict checks

training/tests/test_state_continue_experiment.py

@@ -111,6 +111,26 @@ class StateContinueExperimentTest(unittest.TestCase):
         self.assertEqual("NOT_READY_FOR_FORMAL_CHAIN", verdict["status"])
         self.assertTrue(any("above 0.97" in reason for reason in verdict["reasons"]))
 
+    def test_verdict_reports_when_state_features_do_not_beat_market_only(self) -> None:
+        results = {}
+        for side in ("long", "short"):
+            results[f"{side}_market_only"] = {
+                "validation_locked": {"continue_auc": 0.64, "edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio": 0.965},
+                "latest_stress": {"continue_auc": 0.65, "edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio": 0.964},
+                "regressor_converged": True,
+            }
+            results[f"{side}_market_plus_state"] = {
+                "validation_locked": {"continue_auc": 0.63, "edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio": 0.975},
+                "latest_stress": {"continue_auc": 0.66, "edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio": 0.963},
+                "regressor_converged": True,
+            }
+
+        verdict = _verdict(results)
+
+        self.assertEqual("NOT_READY_FOR_FORMAL_CHAIN", verdict["status"])
+        self.assertTrue(any("continue_auc not better than market_only" in reason for reason in verdict["reasons"]))
+        self.assertTrue(any("edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio not better than market_only" in reason for reason in verdict["reasons"]))
+
     def test_train_side_models_supports_ridge_regressor_diagnostic(self) -> None:
         rows = []
         for split_id in ("fit_inner", "tune_inner", "validation_locked", "latest_stress"):

training/trader_training/state_continue_experiment.py

@@ -578,17 +578,21 @@ def _verdict(results: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]:
             base_auc = base_metric.get("continue_auc")
             plus_mae = plus_metric.get("edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio")
             base_mae = base_metric.get("edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio")
-            if plus_auc is None or plus_auc < 0.60:
+            auc_ok = plus_auc is not None and plus_auc >= 0.60
+            auc_beats_market_only = base_auc is None or (plus_auc is not None and plus_auc > base_auc)
+            if not auc_ok:
                 reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} continue_auc below 0.60: {plus_auc}")
-            elif base_auc is not None and plus_auc <= base_auc:
+            if not auc_beats_market_only:
                 reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} continue_auc not better than market_only: {plus_auc} <= {base_auc}")
-            else:
+            if auc_ok and auc_beats_market_only:
                 passed_checks.append(f"{side} {split_id} continue_auc")
-            if plus_mae is None or plus_mae > 0.97:
+            mae_ok = plus_mae is not None and plus_mae <= 0.97
+            mae_beats_market_only = base_mae is None or (plus_mae is not None and plus_mae < base_mae)
+            if not mae_ok:
                 reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio above 0.97: {plus_mae}")
-            elif base_mae is not None and plus_mae >= base_mae:
+            if not mae_beats_market_only:
                 reasons.append(f"{side} {split_id} edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio not better than market_only: {plus_mae} >= {base_mae}")
-            else:
+            if mae_ok and mae_beats_market_only:
                 passed_checks.append(f"{side} {split_id} edge_mae_vs_constant_ratio")
     return {
         "status": "PASS_TO_FORMAL_CHAIN" if not reasons else "NOT_READY_FOR_FORMAL_CHAIN",